ETSU
Bureau of Business and Economic Research
THE METROPOLITAN AREA (CSA)
The spring months marked the second quarter of severe contraction in the
Tri-Cities regional labor market. Again
linked to large losses in manufacturing and construction, employment fell a
stunning 4.3% to 223,411 -- a loss of over 10,000 jobs compared to the same
period in 2008. Unemployment increased
by 76% to 23,403 on a year-to-year basis – a jump of 10,000 in the jobless
numbers. The unemployment rate for the
Tri-Cities area is now 9.5%, compared to only 5.4% a year ago.
In the fourteen NAICS industry sectors,
employment levels were higher in four, lower in eight, and unchanged in two
(compared to four, nine, and one in the first quarter). Job growth occurred in
government, education & health, professional & business services, and
retail trade. Large employment
declines were reported by construction, durable manufacturing, and nondurable
manufacturing. Smaller job losses
occurred in wholesale trade, other services, information, finance, and
transport & utilities. Employment
was unchanged in leisure & hospitality, and mining.
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2001 232,340 0.25 221,186 -0.47 11,155 17.23 4.80
2002 233,364 0.44 220,150 -0.47 13,214 18.46 5.66
2003 237,051 1.58 223,288 1.43 13,763 4.16 5.81
2004 236,077 -0.41 223,032 -0.11 13,044 -5.22 5.53
2005 237,273 0.51 224,768 0.78 12,506 -4.13 5.27
2006 241,502 1.78 230,068 2.36 11,434 -8.57 4.73
2007 241,720 0.09 230,988 0.40 10,732 -6.15 4.44
2008 246,607 2.02 232,706 0.74 13,901 29.53 5.64
07:1 240,990 0.72 230,021 1.39 10,970 -11.48 4.55
07:2 240,182 -0.40 230,277 0.33 9,905 -14.80 4.12
07:3 241,822 -0.22 231,144 0.04 10,678 -5.60 4.42
07:4 243,885 0.26 232,511 -0.14 11,374 9.27 4.66
08:1 244,886 1.62 232,229 0.96 12,657 15.38 5.17
08:2 246,803 2.76 233,485 1.39 13,319 34.46 5.40
08:3 247,668 2.42 233,017 0.81 14,650 37.20 5.92
08:4 247,073 1.31 232,094 -0.18 14,979 31.70 6.06
09:1 245,135 0.10 224,139 -3.48 20,997 65.89 8.57
09:2 246,813 0.00 223,411 -4.31 23,403 75.71 9.48
THE
TRI-CITIES
All
of the three cities were hard hit by the dismal labor market situation during
the second quarter. Job losses exceeded
40% in each city, while unemployment jumped by 60% to 80%. The jobless rate was 9.0% in Johnson City,
9.2% in Bristol, and 9.6% in Kingsport.
This compares to the 9.5% rate in the region and 9.1% in the nation as a
whole. Several counties in the region
are now seeing unemployment rates above ten percent.
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2001 27,153 0.37 25,981 -0.37 1,172 20.28 4.31
2002 27,194 0.15 25,775 -0.79 1,419 21.14 5.22
2003 27,691 1.83 26,071 1.15 1,620 14.15 5.85
2004 27,188 -1.82 25,636 -1.67 1,552 -4.20 5.71
2005 27,171 -0.06 25,751 0.45 1,420 -8.48 5.23
2006 27,671 1.84 26,409 2.56 1,262 -11.14 4.56
2007 27,572 -0.36 26,356 -0.20 1,215 -3.69 4.41
2008 28,133 2.04 26,626 1.02 1,507 24.02 5.36
07:1 27,503 -0.04 26,266 0.53 1,237 -10.65 4.50
07:2 27,442 -0.93 26,296 -0.36 1,146 -12.44 4.18
07:3 27,635 -0.66 26,436 -0.58 1,199 -2.41 4.34
07:4 27,708 0.20 26,428 -0.37 1,280 13.63 4.62
08:1 27,906 1.47 26,575 1.18 1,331 7.59 4.77
08:2 28,180 2.69 26,754 1.74 1,426 24.43 5.06
08:3 28,310 2.45 26,698 0.99 1,612 34.50 5.70
08:4 28,137 1.55 26,476 0.18 1,660 29.72 5.90
09:1 28,028 0.44 25,654 -3.47 2,374 78.35 8.47
09:2 28,143 -0.13 25,562 -4.45 2,580 80.92 9.17
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2001 51,885 -0.23 49,322 -0.84 2,563 13.36 4.94
2002 52,147 0.50 49,107 -0.44 3,040 18.59 5.83
2003 53,200 2.02 50,204 2.23 2,996 -1.44 5.63
2004 54,097 1.69 51,196 1.98 2,901 -3.17 5.36
2005 54,598 0.91 51,749 1.08 2,840 -2.12 5.20
2006 55,544 1.75 52,943 2.31 2,601 -8.43 4.68
2007 56,123 1.04 53,628 1.29 2,496 -4.03 4.45
2008 57,112 1.76 53,807 0.33 3,305 32.43 5.79
07:1 55,834 1.90 53,360 2.67 2,474 -12.42 4.43
07:2 55,713 0.62 53,392 1.36 2,321 -13.81 4.17
07:3 55,987 0.92 53,479 0.98 2,507 -0.34 4.48
07:4 56,959 0.75 54,278 0.20 2,681 13.19 4.71
08:1 56,746 1.63 53,704 0.64 3,042 22.94 5.36
08:2 57,055 2.41 53,866 0.89 3,189 37.39 5.59
08:3 57,221 2.20 53,763 0.53 3,458 37.90 6.04
08:4 57,427 0.82 53,895 -0.71 3,533 31.77 6.15
09:1 56,509 -0.42 51,807 -3.53 4,702 54.59 8.32
09:2 56,784 -0.47 51,657 -4.10 5,128 60.81 9.03
Kingsport
Urbanized Area Labor Market
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2001 45,468 0.25 43,413 -0.42 2,056 16.99 4.52
2002 45,401 -0.15 42,967 -1.03 2,435 18.44 5.36
2003 45,901 1.10 43,209 0.56 2,692 10.57 5.86
2004 45,093 -1.76 42,532 -1.57 2,562 -4.85 5.68
2005 45,209 0.26 42,783 0.59 2,426 -5.29 5.37
2006 46,036 1.83 43,860 2.52 2,176 -10.31 4.73
2007 45,688 -0.75 43,758 -0.23 1,931 -11.26 4.23
2008 46,722 2.26 44,187 0.98 2,535 31.29 5.43
07:1 45,485 -0.19 43,499 0.57 1,985 -14.31 4.36
07:2 45,508 -1.34 43,706 -0.37 1,802 -20.16 3.96
07:3 45,847 -1.13 43,874 -0.62 1,972 -11.21 4.30
07:4 45,914 -0.35 43,951 -0.49 1,963 2.91 4.28
08:1 46,259 1.70 43,982 1.11 2,277 14.70 4.92
08:2 46,896 3.05 44,442 1.64 2,474 37.27 5.28
08:3 47,065 2.65 44,339 1.06 2,726 38.20 5.79
08:4 46,670 1.65 44,007 0.13 2,663 35.63 5.71
09:1 46,237 -0.05 42,539 -3.28 3,698 62.40 8.00
09:2 46,908 0.03 42,427 -4.49 4,481 81.13 9.55
THE
UNITED STATES
The
recession worsened in the United States
during the second quarter. Employment
fell by 3.8% to 140.6 million -- a loss of nearly 5.6 million jobs since the
same period in 2008. Unemployment was
higher for the eighth quarter in a row, jumping by 74% to 14.1 million (an
increase of 6.0 million compared to 2008).
The spring quarter unemployment rate was 9.1%, compared to 5.3% a year
ago.
In
the fourteen NAICS industry sectors, employment
levels were higher in two, and lower in twelve (compared to three and eleven in
the first quarter). Employment was up in
only education & health, and government.
Large job declines were reported in durable manufacturing, professional
& business services, construction, and retail trade. Smaller employment decreases were in finance,
nondurable manufacturing, leisure & hospitality, wholesale trade, transport
& utilities, information services, other services, and mining.
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_ 2001 143,734 0.81 136,933 0.03 6,801 19.48 4.73 2002 144,863 0.79 136,485 -0.33 8,378 23.19 5.78 2003 146,510 1.14 137,736 0.92 8,774 4.73 5.99 2004 147,401 0.61 139,252 1.10 8,149 -7.12 5.53 2005 149,320 1.30 141,730 1.78 7,591 -6.86 5.08 2006 151,428 1.41 144,427 1.90 7,001 -7.77 4.62 2007 153,124 1.12 146,047 1.12 7,078 1.10 4.62 2008 154,287 0.76 145,362 -0.47 8,924 26.09 5.78 07:1 152,013 1.61 144,692 1.84 7,321 -2.63 4.82 07:2 152,811 1.10 146,040 1.26 6,771 -2.34 4.43 07:3 153,922 0.97 146,723 0.96 7,199 1.33 4.68 07:4 153,752 0.81 146,732 0.45 7,020 8.90 4.57 08:1 152,822 0.53 144,755 0.04 8,067 10.19 5.28 08:2 154,264 0.95 146,165 0.09 8,099 19.61 5.25 08:3 155,399 0.96 146,029 -0.47 9,370 30.17 6.03 08:4 154,662 0.59 144,501 -1.52 10,161 44.74 6.57 09:1 153,659 0.55 140,125 -3.20 13,534 67.77 8.81 09:2 154,697 0.28 140,592 -3.81 14,105 74.17 9.12 Note: Data are in thousands.
ANALYSIS
As
expected, labor market conditions became worse during the second quarter, on
top of a very dismal first quarter. The
question now is whether this trend will continue, or will the labor markets see
some relief in the third quarter?
There
are spreading “green shoots” of encouraging signs that the end of the recession
may be close. The national unemployment
rate has held steady for the past two months at a little above nine
percent. The decline in production (as
measured by real GDP) is very small in the second quarter, after six months of
substantial decline. In a matching
pattern, the monthly losses in payroll jobs are becoming smaller. This is not the end of the recession, but we
may be nearing the end.
Many
analysts now expect the end of the recession to occur in the third quarter. This will mark a low point or “trough” in
economic activity. After a trough, comes
the recovery phase of the business cycle.
Based on the feeble recoveries after the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions,
most analysts are forecasting a slow recovery.
And if the recovery is slow, then unemployment rates may go up even
further. The economy needs to create new
jobs at a brisk pace to put the unemployed back to work, and to provide jobs
for the natural growth of the labor force.
But
there is another factor at work. To
offset the severity of the recession and the collapse of the financial system,
the federal government and the central bank have provided a level of fiscal and
monetary stimulus unseen since World War II.
The spending by the federal government (the fiscal stimulus) has not
really begun yet! The main fiscal
stimulus is spread across the next three quarters, and will peak next
winter. And as the economy turns around,
the banking system is awash in liquidity to make new loans to further stimulate
business activity.
So
what does the future look like for the nation?
The consensus outlook is for a weak recovery to begin in the third
quarter, and for the unemployment rate to rise to the ten percent level in
2010. But there is also a very good
chance that the recovery will be much
more vigorous than expected, leading to lower unemployment rates in the near
future. Since regional business
conditions are now linked to the national business cycle, the level of recovery
in the nation will set the course of recovery in the Tri-Cities.
Technical Note. This report was prepared in August 2009, and
is based upon the 2008 benchmark of the Current Population Survey, U.S.
Department of Labor. The labor markets
for
More
information. This report was
prepared by Dr. F. Steb Hipple, Professor of Economics, and Research Associate,
BBER. For more information, please
contact Dr. Hipple c/o Department of Economics and Finance, Box 70686,