ETSU Bureau of Business and Economic
Research
THE
METROPOLITAN AREA (CSA)
The Tri-Cities labor
market showed signs of recovery during the second quarter. Area employment increased for the first time
since 2008, expanding by 0.4% to 224,688 for a gain of over 800 jobs compared
to the same period in 2009. Unemployment
decreased for the first time since 2007, falling by 5% to 22,451 for a drop of
over 1,100 in the jobless numbers. Over
the April to June period, the unemployment rate for the Tri-Cities area was
9.1%, compared to 9.6% a year ago.
Among the
twelve local NAICS industry sectors, employment levels were higher in three
sectors, lower in eight, and unchanged in one (compared to one, eleven, and
zero in the first quarter). Job growth occurred in government, education & health, and
wholesale trade. Major employment
declines were concentrated in manufacturing, professional & business
services, construction & mining, and retail trade. Smaller job losses occurred in transport
& utilities, leisure & hospitality, information, and finance. Employment was unchanged in other services.
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2001 232,340 0.25 221,186 -0.47 11,155 17.23 4.80
2002 233,364 0.44 220,150 -0.47 13,214 18.46 5.66
2003 237,051 1.58 223,288 1.43 13,763 4.16 5.81
2004 236,077 -0.41 223,032 -0.11 13,044 -5.22 5.53
2005 237,634 0.66 225,097 0.93 12,537 -3.89 5.28
2006 242,076 1.87 230,568 2.43 11,508 -8.20 4.75
2007 242,233 0.06 231,358 0.34 10,875 -5.51 4.49
2008 247,307 2.10 232,913 0.67 14,394 32.37 5.82
2009 246,412 -0.36 223,231 -4.16 23,181 61.04 9.41
07:1 241,589 0.75 230,490 1.39 11,099 -10.97 4.59
07:2 240,862 -0.39 230,770 0.31 10,092 -14.12 4.19
07:3 242,354 -0.25 231,544 -0.03 10,810 -4.84 4.46
07:4 244,125 0.17 232,628 -0.27 11,497 9.97 4.71
08:1 245,315 1.54 232,469 0.86 12,846 15.75 5.24
08:2 247,100 2.59 233,445 1.16 13,655 35.30 5.53
08:3 248,032 2.34 232,887 0.58 15,144 40.10 6.11
08:4 248,782 1.91 232,851 0.10 15,931 38.57 6.40
09:1 247,433 0.86 225,336 -3.07 22,097 72.01 8.93
09:2 247,512 0.17 223,874 -4.10 23,638 73.12 9.55
09:3 246,317 -0.69 222,450 -4.48 23,866 57.59 9.69
09:4 244,385 -1.77 221,263 -4.98 23,123 45.14 9.46
10:1 243,351 -1.65 218,531 -3.02 24,821 12.33 10.20
10:2 247,138 -0.15 224,688 0.36 22,451 -5.02 9.08
THE
TRI-CITIES
Compared to previous quarters,
labor market conditions improved in all three cities. Employment increased in Johnson City and
Kingsport while job losses were very small in Bristol. Unemployment declined in all three cities,
reflecting both job creation and discouraged workers leaving the labor
force. The jobless rate was 9.0% in
Bristol and Kingsport, and 9.1% in Johnson City. In comparison, the regional rate was 9.1% and
the national rate was 9.5%.
Bristol
TN-VA Urbanized Area Labor Market
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2001 27,153 0.37 25,981 -0.37 1,172 20.28 4.31
2002 27,194 0.15 25,775 -0.79 1,419 21.14 5.22
2003 27,691 1.83 26,071 1.15 1,620 14.15 5.85
2004 27,188 -1.82 25,636 -1.67 1,552 -4.20 5.71
2005 27,189 0.00 25,765 0.50 1,424 -8.25 5.24
2006 27,714 1.93 26,445 2.64 1,269 -10.86 4.58
2007 27,615 -0.36 26,387 -0.22 1,227 -3.30 4.44
2008 28,086 1.71 26,549 0.61 1,536 25.17 5.47
2009 28,038 -0.17 25,463 -4.09 2,574 67.57 9.18
07:1 27,548 0.00 26,298 0.55 1,250 -10.25 4.54
07:2 27,499 -0.90 26,337 -0.35 1,163 -11.96 4.23
07:3 27,681 -0.67 26,473 -0.61 1,208 -1.97 4.36
07:4 27,731 0.14 26,442 -0.44 1,289 13.91 4.65
08:1 27,825 1.01 26,490 0.73 1,335 6.84 4.80
08:2 28,083 2.12 26,639 1.15 1,444 24.21 5.14
08:3 28,220 1.95 26,580 0.40 1,640 35.75 5.81
08:4 28,215 1.75 26,489 0.18 1,726 33.88 6.12
09:1 28,236 1.48 25,805 -2.59 2,431 82.09 8.61
09:2 28,164 0.29 25,584 -3.96 2,580 78.62 9.16
09:3 28,103 -0.41 25,400 -4.44 2,703 64.83 9.62
09:4 27,648 -2.01 25,064 -5.38 2,584 49.70 9.34
10:1 27,644 -2.09 24,926 -3.41 2,719 11.85 9.84
10:2 28,065 -0.35 25,530 -0.21 2,535 -1.72 9.03
Johnson
City Urbanized Area Labor Market
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2001 51,885 -0.23 49,322 -0.84 2,563 13.36 4.94
2002 52,147 0.50 49,107 -0.44 3,040 18.59 5.83
2003 53,200 2.02 50,204 2.23 2,996 -1.44 5.63
2004 54,097 1.69 51,196 1.98 2,901 -3.17 5.36
2005 54,732 1.17 51,885 1.35 2,847 -1.88 5.20
2006 55,731 1.83 53,112 2.36 2,619 -8.00 4.70
2007 56,279 0.98 53,741 1.18 2,538 -3.10 4.51
2008 57,345 1.89 53,878 0.26 3,467 36.60 6.05
2009 56,880 -0.81 51,598 -4.23 5,282 52.35 9.29
07:1 56,029 1.90 53,521 2.64 2,508 -11.77 4.48
07:2 55,920 0.60 53,545 1.29 2,375 -12.87 4.25
07:3 56,142 0.85 53,593 0.85 2,549 0.75 4.54
07:4 57,023 0.60 54,302 0.00 2,721 14.39 4.77
08:1 56,929 1.61 53,816 0.55 3,113 24.12 5.47
08:2 57,214 2.31 53,911 0.68 3,303 39.05 5.77
08:3 57,391 2.23 53,768 0.33 3,623 42.15 6.31
08:4 57,846 1.44 54,017 -0.53 3,830 40.78 6.62
09:1 56,859 -0.12 51,786 -3.77 5,073 62.97 8.92
09:2 56,861 -0.62 51,604 -4.28 5,257 59.17 9.25
09:3 56,808 -1.02 51,346 -4.51 5,462 50.76 9.62
09:4 56,993 -1.48 51,656 -4.37 5,337 39.35 9.36
10:1 56,172 -1.21 50,519 -2.45 5,653 11.43 10.06
10:2 57,406 0.96 52,194 1.14 5,212 -0.86 9.08
Kingsport
Urbanized Area Labor Market
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2001 45,468 0.25 43,413 -0.42 2,056 16.99 4.52
2002 45,401 -0.15 42,967 -1.03 2,435 18.44 5.36
2003 45,901 1.10 43,209 0.56 2,692 10.57 5.86
2004 45,093 -1.76 42,532 -1.57 2,562 -4.85 5.68
2005 45,323 0.51 42,890 0.84 2,433 -5.04 5.37
2006 46,187 1.91 43,995 2.58 2,191 -9.92 4.74
2007 45,811 -0.81 43,848 -0.33 1,963 -10.44 4.28
2008 46,866 2.30 44,218 0.84 2,648 34.91 5.65
2009 46,660 -0.44 42,323 -4.29 4,337 63.81 9.30
07:1 45,638 -0.19 43,627 0.54 2,012 -13.70 4.41
07:2 45,672 -1.36 43,829 -0.43 1,843 -19.32 4.04
07:3 45,970 -1.20 43,966 -0.74 2,004 -10.26 4.36
07:4 45,962 -0.49 43,971 -0.69 1,991 3.93 4.33
08:1 46,352 1.56 44,033 0.93 2,319 15.25 5.00
08:2 46,935 2.77 44,386 1.27 2,549 38.29 5.43
08:3 47,131 2.52 44,288 0.73 2,843 41.87 6.03
08:4 47,046 2.36 44,167 0.45 2,880 44.63 6.12
09:1 46,812 0.99 42,834 -2.72 3,978 71.58 8.50
09:2 47,086 0.32 42,512 -4.22 4,574 79.41 9.71
09:3 46,649 -1.02 42,178 -4.76 4,471 57.23 9.58
09:4 46,094 -2.02 41,767 -5.43 4,326 50.24 9.39
10:1 46,096 -1.53 41,413 -3.32 4,683 17.72 10.16
10:2 46,973 -0.24 42,719 0.49 4,253 -7.01 9.05
THE
UNITED STATES
In contrast to the Tri-Cities
region, the national labor market picture continued to worsen during the second
quarter. However, the decline in market
performance was very modest compared to previous periods. Employment fell by 0.7% to 139.6 million -- a
loss of 1.0 million jobs since the same period in 2009. Unemployment was higher for the twelfth
quarter in a row, rising by 3.7% to 14.6 million (an increase of 0.5 million
compared to 2009). The spring
unemployment rate was 9.5%, compared to 9.1% a year ago.
Among the twelve NAICS industry
sectors, employment increased in three and decreased in nine sectors (compared
to one and eleven in the first quarter).
Employment was higher in education & health services, government,
and professional & business services.
The largest job losses occurred in the goods producing sectors of
construction & mining, and manufacturing.
Smaller declines were reported by finance, transport & utilities,
retail trade, information services, wholesale trade, other services, and
leisure & hospitality.
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_ 2001 143,734 0.81 136,933 0.03 6,801 19.48 4.73 2002 144,863 0.79 136,485 -0.33 8,378 23.19 5.78 2003 146,510 1.14 137,736 0.92 8,774 4.73 5.99 2004 147,401 0.61 139,252 1.10 8,149 -7.12 5.53 2005 149,320 1.30 141,730 1.78 7,591 -6.86 5.08 2006 151,428 1.41 144,427 1.90 7,001 -7.77 4.62 2007 153,124 1.12 146,047 1.12 7,078 1.10 4.62 2008 154,287 0.76 145,362 -0.47 8,924 26.09 5.78 2009 154,142 -0.09 139,878 -3.77 14,265 59.84 9.25 07:1 152,013 1.61 144,692 1.84 7,321 -2.63 4.82 07:2 152,811 1.10 146,040 1.26 6,771 -2.34 4.43 07:3 153,922 0.97 146,723 0.96 7,199 1.33 4.68 07:4 153,752 0.81 146,732 0.45 7,020 8.90 4.57 08:1 152,822 0.53 144,755 0.04 8,067 10.19 5.28 08:2 154,264 0.95 146,165 0.09 8,099 19.61 5.25 08:3 155,399 0.96 146,029 -0.47 9,370 30.17 6.03 08:4 154,662 0.59 144,501 -1.52 10,161 44.74 6.57 09:1 153,659 0.55 140,125 -3.20 13,534 67.77 8.81 09:2 154,697 0.28 140,592 -3.81 14,105 74.17 9.12 09:3 154,923 -0.31 140,069 -4.08 14,854 58.52 9.59 09:4 153,289 -0.89 138,724 -4.00 14,565 43.34 9.50 10.1 153,270 -0.25 137,332 -1.99 15,939 17.76 10.40 10.2 154,181 -0.33 139,560 -0.73 14,621 3.66 9.48 Note: Data are in thousands.
ANALYSIS
The
economy - national and local – remains in a painful and extended bottom point
in the business cycle. Production is
increasing, consumer spending and retail activity are
growing, and the stock market is higher.
The missing element has been job creation. Until the labor market shows continuing and
significant job growth, the economy remains mired in the Great Recession.
The
second quarter labor market data are encouraging. The regional labor market is improving and
the decline in the national labor market may be ending. This is the reverse of the expected pattern. Rather than trailing the national economy,
the recovery in the regional labor market is now leading the national recovery.
At
the local level, we have the first positive news in over a year - employment is
higher and unemployment is lower. The
job gains are modest and part of the lower unemployment is due to discouraged
workers leaving the labor force. But no
one can deny that the local labor market picture is looking much better.
At
the national level, the labor market appears to be at the end of the recessionary
downturn. The decline in employment has
dropped from the nearly four percent annual rate of last year to a fraction of
one percent. The growth in unemployment
has dropped from the sixty percent annual rate of last year to less than four
percent. At this rate, employment should
be higher and unemployment lower in the third quarter.
The
NAICS sector data show a larger number of sectors adding jobs in the second
quarter. However most
sectors continue to reduce employment, especially manufacturing and
construction. Also some of the job
gains in the quarter were due to the government hiring of temporary census
workers.
The
second quarter labor market conditions suggest that the recession may finally
be ending, and that the true turnaround will be in the third quarter. However, the business and economic news
continues to be mixed. Consumer
confidence remains weak and some analysts are warning of a second recessionary downturn. This is referred to as a “W” shaped business
cycle.
The
business outlook remains very unclear for both the region and the nation. We could be (1) entering into another
recessionary downturn with higher unemployment, (2) treading water with no change
in the unemployment rate, (3) starting a feeble recovery with a show decline in
unemployment, or (4) starting a strong recovery with a rapid decline in
unemployment. The consensus outlook is
number three – a feeble recovery with a very slow fall in unemployment. However the first and second scenarios are
gaining support among analysts. It may
be time for additional fiscal stimulus.
Technical Note. This report was prepared in August 2010, and
is based upon the 2009 benchmark of the Current Population Survey, U.S.
Department of Labor. The labor markets
for
More information. This report was prepared by Dr. F. Steb
Hipple, Professor of Economics, and Research Associate, BBER. For more information, please contact Dr. Hipple
c/o Department of Economics and Finance, Box 70686,