ETSU Bureau of Business and Economic Research

Tri-Cities Labor Market Report

East Tennessee State University + Second Quarter 2013 + College of Business and Technology

THE METROPOLITAN AREA (CSA)

Employment in the metro area declined again in the second quarter, continuing a trend that began last spring. Compared to the same period in 2012, regional job levels were lower by 1.6% to 226,227 while unemployment rose 2.6% to 18,812. Over the April to June period, the jobless rate for the Tri-Cities Consolidated Statistical Area (CSA) was 7.7%, compared to 7.4% a year earlier. This marks the first increase in unemployment levels and rate in three years.

Among the twelve regional NAICS industry sectors, employment levels were higher in five, lower in five, and unchanged in two (compared to six, four, and two in the first quarter). Job growth was led by other services, professional & business services, construction, leisure & hospitality, and education & health services. Job losses occurred in government, information services, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and finance. Employment was unchanged in retail trade and transport & utilities. Private sector employment was higher in the second quarter, but large sequester related job losses in government caused overall CSA employment to again decline.

 
 Labor Force Employment Unemployment
 Period  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Rate_
  2007 243,442 0.65 232,670 1.01 10,771 -6.59 4.42
 2008 247,849 1.81 233,510 0.36 14,340 33.13 5.79
 2009 246,766 -0.44 223,402 -4.33 23,364 62.94 9.47
 2010 248,314 0.63 225,930 1.13 22,384 -4.20 9.01
 2011 250,673 0.95 230,033 1.82 20,639 -7.79 8.23
 2012 247,285 -1.35 229,216 -0.36 18,069 -12.45 7.31
 09:1 247,598 0.57 225,275 -3.50 22,323 75.09 9.02
 09:2 248,181 0.21 224,035 -4.24 24,147 76.18 9.73
 09:3 246,680 -0.71 222,647 -4.59 24,033 59.27 9.74
 09:4 244,606 -1.81 221,651 -4.99 22,955 45.16 9.38
 10:1 244,540 -1.24 219,864 -2.40 24,676 10.54 10.09
 10:2 249,778 0.64 227,781 1.67 21,997 -8.90 8.81
 10:3 249,976 1.34 228,280 2.53 21,695 -9.73 8.68
 10:4 248,963 1.78 227,797 2.77 21,167 -7.79 8.50
  11:1 249,507 2.03 227,403 3.43 22,104 -10.42 8.86
 11:2 251,173 0.56 230,033 0.99 21,139 -3.90 8.42
 11:3 251,467 0.60 230,464 0.96 21,003 -3.19 8.35
 11:4 250,544 0.63 232,234 1.95 18,310 -13.50 7.31
 12:1 247,713 -0.72 228,789 0.61 18,924 -14.39 7.64
 12:2 248,115 -1.22 229,788 -0.11 18,327 -13.30 7.39
 12:3 246,694 -1.90 228,344 -0.92 18,350 -12.63 7.44
  12:4 246,619 -1.57 229,945 -0.99 16,675 -8.93 6.76
 13:1 244,740 -1.20 226,393 -1.05 18,347 -3.05 7.50
 13:2 245,039 -1.24 226,227 -1.55 18,812 2.64 7.68

THE TRI-CITIES

Labor market conditions in the three cities continued to reflect the regional situation. Employment was down 2.6% in Johnson City, 1.2% in Kingsport, and 0.6% in Bristol. Jobless levels were higher in all three cities, pushing the unemployment rates to 7.4% in Bristol, 7.7 in Kingsport, and 7.8% in Johnson City. This marks the first increases in city unemployment levels and rates in three years

Bristol TN-VA Urbanized Area Labor Market

 
 Labor Force Employment Unemployment
 Period  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Rate_
 2007 32,317 0.14 30,876 0.18 1,441 -0.91 4.46
 2008 32,989 2.08 31,222 1.12 1,767 22.58 5.36
 2009 32,872 -0.35 29,846 -4.41 3,027 71.31 9.21
 2010 33,062 0.58 30,103 0.86 2,960 -2.21 8.95
 2011 33,533 1.42 30,791 2.29 2,742 -7.34 8.18
 2012 33,089 -1.32 30,696 -0.31 2,393 -12.75 7.23
 09:1 33,157  1.21 30,266 -3.04 2,891 87.11 8.72
 09:2 33,013 0.05 29,995 -4.29 3,018 81.81 9.14
 09:3 32,948 -0.49 29,766 -4.73 3,182 70.34 9.66
 09:4 32,372 -2.16 29,356 -5.59 3,015 51.24 9.31
 10:1 32,576 -1.75 29,425 -2.78 3,151 9.00 9.67
 10:2 33,088 0.23 30,186 0.64 2,902 -3.87 8.77
 10:3 33,410 1.40 30,407 2.15 3,004 -5.61 8.99
 10:4 33,175  2.48 30,392 3.53 2,782 -7.71 8.39
 11:1 33,137 1.72 30,344 3.12 2,793 -11.36 8.43
 11:2 33,490 1.21 30,811 2.07 2,679 -7.67 8.00
 11:3 33,847 1.31 30,944 1.77 2,903 -3.36 8.58
 11:4 33,659 1.46 31,064 2.21 2,595 -6.75 7.71
 12:1 33,113 -0.07 30,593 0.82 2,520 -9.78 7.61
 12:2 33,207 -0.84 30,757 -0.17 2,450 -8.56 7.38
 12:3 33,138  -2.10 30,662 -0.91 2,476 -14.72 7.47
 12:4 32,898 -2.26 30,773 -0.94 2,125 -18.09 6.46
 13:1 32,854 -0.78 30,503 -0.30 2,351 -6.70 7.16
 13:2 33,028 -0.54 30,575 -0.59 2,453 0.15 7.43
 
 

Johnson City Urbanized Area Labor Market

 
 Labor Force Employment Unemployment
 Period  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Rate_
 2007 60,658 1.91 58,000 2.24 2,658 -4.72 4.38
 2008 61,431 1.27 57,767 -0.40 3,663 37.83 5.96
 2009 61,093 -0.55 55,458 -4.00 5,635 53.83 9.22
 2010 61,950 1.40 56,422 1.74 5,529 -1.89 8.92
 2011 62,403 0.73 57,256 1.48 5,147 -6.89 8.25
 2012 61,453 -1.52 57,093 -0.28 4,360 -15.29 7.10
 09:1 60,995 -0.14 55,557 -3.90 5,438 66.29 8.92
 09:2 61,175 -0.16 55,472 -3.93 5,702  61.59 9.32
 09:3 61,033 -0.66 55,206 -4.17 5,827 52.07 9.55
 09:4 61,170 -1.23 55,598 -3.99 5,572 38.55 9.11
 10:1 60,842 -0.25 54,869 -1.24 5,973 9.84 9.82
 10:2 62,558 2.26 57,128 2.98 5,430 -4.77 8.68
 10:3 62,332 2.13 56,954 3.17 5,378 -7.71 8.63
 10:4 62,069 1.47 56,737 2.05 5,332 -4.30 8.59
 11:1 62,347 2.47 56,829 3.57 5,518 -7.62 8.85
 11:2 62,493 -0.10 57,149 0.04 5,344 -1.58 8.55
 11:3 62,353 0.03 57,121 0.29 5,232 -2.71 8.39
 11:4 62,421 0.57 57,925 2.09 4,495 -15.70 7.20
 12:1 61,673 -1.08 57,162 0.59 4,511 -18.25 7.31
 12:2 61,747 -1.19 57,290 0.25 4,457 -16.60 7.22
 12:3 61,093 -2.02 56,658 -0.81 4,435 -15.24 7.26
 12:4 61,300 -1.79 57,262 -1.14 4,038 -10.17 6.59
 13:1 60,520 -1.87 56,065 -1.92 4,455 -1.25 7.36
 13:2 60,481 -2.05 55,779 -2.64 4,702 5.49 7.77
 
 

Kingsport Urbanized Area Labor Market

 
 Labor Force Employment  Unemployment
 Period  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Rate_
 2007 49,906 -0.01 47,811 0.57 2,096 -11.74 4.20
 2008 50,764 1.72 47,921 0.23 2,843 35.66 5.60
 2009 50,723 -0.08 46,004 -4.00 4,719 65.98 9.30
 2010 50,874 0.30 46,424 0.91 4,450 -5.69 8.75
 2011 51,420 1.07 47,350 2.00 4,070 -8.54 7.92
 2012 50,716 -1.37 47,089 -0.55 3,626 -10.90 7.15
 09:1 50,833 1.07 46,488 -2.78 4,345 75.27 8.55
 09:2 51,228 0.81 46,177 -3.91 5,051 82.94 9.86
 09:3 50,750 -0.52 45,889 -4.32 4,861 59.18 9.58
 09:4 50,081 -1.66 45,464 -4.99 4,618 50.02 9.22
 10:1 49,933 -1.77 44,913 -3.39 5,020 15.53 10.05
 10:2 51,339 0.22 46,859 1.48 4,480 -11.30 8.73
 10:3 51,198 0.88 47,004 2.43 4,194 -13.71 8.19
 10:4 51,025 1.88 46,918 3.20 4,106 -11.08 8.05
 11:1 51,134 2.41 46,722 4.03 4,412 -12.11 8.63
 11:2 51,594 0.50 47,451 1.26 4,143 -7.53 8.03
 11:3 51,626 0.84 47,542 1.14 4,084 -2.62 7.91
 11:4 51,327 0.59 47,686 1.64 3,641 -11.33 7.09
 12:1 50,750 -0.75 46,869 0.31 3,881 -12.02 7.65
 12:2 50,847 -1.45 47,169 -0.59 3,678 -11.22 7.23
 12:3 50,633 -1.92 47,012 -1.11 3,622 -11.33 7.15
 12:4 50,633 -1.35 47,308 -0.79 3,325 -8.69 6.57
 13:1 50,237 -1.01 46,512 -0.65 3,725 -4.02 7.42
 13:2 50,452 -0.78 46,589 -1.23 3,862 5.01 7.66

THE UNITED STATES

The national economy continued to add jobs during the second quarter. On a year-to-year basis, national employment grew 1.2% to 144.3 million, marking the eleventh quarter in a row of overall growth, and the seventh quarter of significant growth. In line with rising employment, jobless levels declined for the twelfth quarter in a row, falling 7.5% to 11.5 million. The spring unemployment rate was 7.4% (compared to 8.0% in 2012 and 8.9% in 2011).

Among the twelve national NAICS industry sectors, employment increased in eleven sectors and decreased in one sector (compared to eleven and one in the first quarter). Job gains were led by professional & business services, leisure & hospitality, education & health services, retail trade, construction, and finance,. Smaller employment increases occurred in wholesale trade, transportation & utilities, other services, manufacturing, and information services. Job losses were limited to the government sector as the sequester continues to take its toll.

 
 Labor Force Employment Unemployment
 Period  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Rate_
 2007 153,124 1.12 146,047  1.12 7,078 1.10 4.62
 2008 154,287 0.76 145,362 -0.47 8,924 26.09 5.78
 2009 154,142 -0.09 139,878 -3.77 14,265 59.84 9.25
 2010 153,889 -0.16 139,064 -0.58 14,825 3.93 9.63
  2011 153,617 -0.18 139,869 0.58 13,747 -7.27 8.95
 2012 154,975 0.88 142,469 1.86 12,506 -9.03 8.07
 09:1 153,659 0.55 140,125 -3.20 13,534 67.77 8.81
 09:2 154,697 0.28 140,592 -3.81 14,105 74.17 9.12
 09:3 154,923 -0.31 140,069 -4.08 14,854 58.52 9.59
 09:4 153,289 -0.89 138,724 -4.00 14,565 43.34 9.50
 10:1 153,270 -0.25 137,332 -1.99 15,939 17.76 10.40
 10:2 154,181 -0.33 139,560 -0.73 14,621 3.66 9.48
 10:3 154,601 -0.21 139,923 -0.10 14,679 -1.18 9.49
 10:4 153,502 0.14 139,441 0.52 14,061 -3.46 9.16
 11:1 152,731 -0.35 138,218 0.65 14,513 -8.94 9.50
 11:2 153,628 -0.36 139,939 0.27 13,689 -6.37 8.91
 11:3 154,392 -0.14 140,407 0.35 13,985 -4.72 9.06
 11:4 153,715 0.14 140,913 1.06 12,802 -8.95 8.33
 12:1 153,972 0.81 140,680 1.78 13,292 -8.42 8.63
 12:2 155,096 0.96 142,641 1.93 12,455 -9.01 8.03
 12:3 155,618 0.79 143,006 1.85 12,613 -9.82 8.10
 12:4 155,212 0.97 143,549 1.87 11,663 -8.90 7.51
 13:1 154,679 0.46 142,180 1.07 12,499 -5.97 8.08
 13:2 155,854 0.49 144,332 1.19 11,521 -7.50 7.39
 Note: Data are in thousands.

ANALYSIS

Labor market performance over the past several years clearly shows that the national economy and the regional economy march to the beat of different drummers. In 2010 and 2011, the region and the individual cities saw strong job creation while the U.S. economy sputtered along. The situation is now reversed with significant employment gains at the national level, while local employment levels have been dropping over the past year.

In the national labor market, the second quarter was the seventh quarter of significant employment growth, where “significant” means that job creation was more than the one percent growth rate of the U.S. population and labor force. However, the employment increase in the April to June period was only 1.2%, which means that millions of potential workers remain jobless due to the Great Recession. If these 6.3 million discouraged workers are added back into the labor force, the unemployment rate becomes 11.0%, compared to the 7.4% official rate

In the region, employment has been falling for the past year, yet unemployment continued to decline as well. The strong job growth in 2010 and 2011 attracted many job seekers which added to the regional unemployment totals. Over the past year, these job seekers have been leaving the area, and it now appears that they are largely gone. Thus the job losses in the second quarter were reflected in the rise in unemployment.

The economic outlook remains uncertain. At best the national economy will continue its sluggish growth and millions of workers will remain unemployed. The ongoing policy confusion in Washington is not helping consumer or business confidence. The sequester continues to reduce government employment – primarily at the state and local levels. And we are approaching the “budget cliff” again which threatens to shut down the federal government altogether.

Technical Note. This report was prepared in August 2013, and is based upon the 2012 benchmark of the Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The labor markets for Bristol, Johnson City, and Kingsport are presented in terms of the U.S. Census Bureau concept of the urbanized area (UZA) which includes the core city and the contiguous urban fringe. The urbanized area for each city is based upon demographic patterns from the 2010 Census of Population. The data in this report are not adjusted for seasonality, so comparisons should be made on a year-to-year basis.

Special Note. The labor market estimates in this report are based on BLS benchmark revisions issued in 2013, and new urbanized area definitions from the 2010 census. The figures in this report are not comparable to the figures in reports covering 2012 and earlier years. See the discussion in the labor market report for the first quarter of 2013.

More information. This report was prepared by Dr. F. Steb Hipple, Professor of Economics, and Research Associate, BBER. For more information, please contact Dr. Hipple c/o Department of Economics and Finance, Box 70686, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, Tennessee 37614. Phone/Voicemail: 423-439-5304. Fax: 423-439-8583. E-Mail: hipples@etsu.edu . Website: http://faculty.etsu.edu/hipples.