ETSU Bureau of Business and Economic Research

Tri-Cities Labor Market Report

East Tennessee State University + Third Quarter 2013 + College of Business and Technology

THE METROPOLITAN AREA (CSA)

During the third quarter, employment levels in the metro area declined for the sixth period in a row. Compared to the same period in 2012, regional job levels were lower by 1.1% to 225,769 while unemployment rose 2.2% to 18,746. Over the July to September period, the jobless rate for the Tri-Cities Consolidated Statistical Area (CSA) was 7.7%, compared to 7.4% a year earlier. This marks the second quarter of higher unemployment levels.

Among the twelve regional NAICS industry sectors, employment levels were higher in five, lower in six, and unchanged in one (compared to five, five, and two in the second quarter). Job growth was led by leisure & hospitality, professional & business services, construction, retail trade, and other services. Job losses occurred in government, education & health, manufacturing, information services, transport & utilities, and finance. Employment was unchanged in wholesale trade. Private sector employment was higher in the third quarter, but large sequester related job losses in government again caused overall CSA employment to decline.

 
 Labor Force Employment Unemployment
 Period  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Rate_
 2007 243,442 0.65 232,670 1.01 10,771 -6.59 4.42
 2008 247,849 1.81 233,510 0.36 14,340 33.13 5.79
 2009 246,766 -0.44 223,402 -4.33 23,364 62.94 9.47
 2010 248,314 0.63 225,930 1.13 22,384 -4.20 9.01
 2011 250,673 0.95 230,033 1.82 20,639 -7.79  8.23
 2012 247,285 -1.35 229,216 -0.36 18,069 -12.45 7.31
 09:1 247,598 0.57 225,275 -3.50 22,323 75.09 9.02
 09:2 248,181 0.21 224,035 -4.24 24,147 76.18 9.73
 09:3 246,680 -0.71 222,647 -4.59 24,033 59.27 9.74
 09:4 244,606 -1.81 221,651 -4.99 22,955 45.16 9.38
 10:1 244,540 -1.24 219,864 -2.40 24,676 10.54 10.09
 10:2 249,778 0.64 227,781 1.67 21,997 -8.90 8.81
 10:3 249,976 1.34 228,280 2.53 21,695 -9.73 8.68
 10:4 248,963 1.78 227,797 2.77 21,167 -7.79 8.50
 11:1 249,507 2.03 227,403 3.43 22,104 -10.42 8.86
 11:2 251,173 0.56  230,033 0.99 21,139 -3.90 8.42
 11:3 251,467 0.60 230,464 0.96 21,003 -3.19 8.35
 11:4 250,544 0.63 232,234 1.95 18,310 -13.50 7.31
 12:1 247,713 -0.72 228,789 0.61 18,924 -14.39 7.64
 12:2 248,115 -1.22 229,788 -0.11 18,327 -13.30 7.39
 12:3 246,694 -1.90 228,344 -0.92 18,350 -12.63 7.44
 12:4 246,619 -1.57 229,945 -0.99 16,675 -8.93 6.76
 13:1 244,740 -1.20  226,393 -1.05 18,347 -3.05 7.50
 13:2 244,965 -1.27 226,172 -1.57 18,793 2.54 7.67
 13:3 244,515 -0.88 225,769 -1.13 18,746 2.16 7.67

THE TRI-CITIES

The continuing weakness in the regional labor market is reflected in the data for the three cities. Employment was down 2.2% in Johnson City, 0.9% in Kingsport, and 0.2% in Bristol. Jobless levels were higher in all three cities, pushing the unemployment rates to 7.5% in Kingsport and Bristol, and 7.8% in Johnson City. This marks the second quarter of rising unemployment in the three cities.

Bristol TN-VA Urbanized Area Labor Market

 
 Labor Force Employment Unemployment
 Period  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Rate_
 2007 32,317 0.14 30,876 0.18 1,441 -0.91 4.46
 2008 32,989 2.08 31,222 1.12 1,767 22.58 5.36
 2009 32,872 -0.35 29,846 -4.41 3,027 71.31 9.21
 2010  33,062 0.58 30,103 0.86 2,960 -2.21 8.95
 2011 33,533 1.42 30,791 2.29 2,742 -7.34 8.18
 2012 33,089 -1.32 30,696 -0.31 2,393 -12.75 7.23
 09:1 33,157 1.21 30,266 -3.04  2,891 87.11 8.72
 09:2 33,013 0.05 29,995 -4.29 3,018 81.81 9.14
 09:3 32,948 -0.49 29,766 -4.73 3,182 70.34 9.66
 09:4 32,372 -2.16 29,356 -5.59 3,015 51.24 9.31
 10:1  32,576 -1.75 29,425 -2.78 3,151 9.00 9.67
 10:2 33,088 0.23 30,186 0.64 2,902 -3.87 8.77
 10:3 33,410 1.40 30,407 2.15 3,004 -5.61 8.99
 10:4 33,175 2.48 30,392 3.53 2,782 -7.71 8.39
 11:1 33,137 1.72 30,344 3.12 2,793 -11.36 8.43
 11:2 33,490 1.21 30,811 2.07 2,679 -7.67 8.00
 11:3 33,847 1.31 30,944 1.77 2,903 -3.36 8.58
 11:4  33,659 1.46 31,064 2.21 2,595 -6.75 7.71
 12:1 33,113 -0.07 30,593 0.82 2,520 -9.78 7.61
 12:2 33,207 -0.84 30,757 -0.17 2,450 -8.56 7.38
 12:3 33,138 -2.10 30,662 -0.91 2,476 -14.72 7.47
 12:4 32,898 -2.26 30,773 -0.94 2,125 -18.09 6.46
 13:1 32,854 -0.78 30,503 -0.30 2,351 -6.70 7.16
 13:2 33,025 -0.55 30,574 -0.60 2,451 0.04 7.42
 13:3 33,088 -0.15 30,602 -0.19 2,486 0.40 7.51
 

Johnson City Urbanized Area Labor Market

 
 Labor Force Employment Unemployment
 Period  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Rate_
 2007  60,658 1.91 58,000 2.24 2,658 -4.72 4.38
 2008 61,431 1.27 57,767 -0.40 3,663 37.83 5.96
 2009 61,093 -0.55 55,458 -4.00 5,635 53.83 9.22
 2010 61,950 1.40 56,422 1.74  5,529 -1.89 8.92
 2011 62,403 0.73 57,256 1.48 5,147 -6.89 8.25
 2012 61,453 -1.52 57,093 -0.28 4,360 -15.29 7.10
 09:1 60,995 -0.14 55,557 -3.90 5,438 66.29 8.92
 09:2  61,175 -0.16 55,472 -3.93 5,702 61.59 9.32
 09:3 61,033 -0.66 55,206 -4.17 5,827 52.07 9.55
 09:4 61,170 -1.23 55,598 -3.99 5,572 38.55 9.11
 10:1 60,842 -0.25 54,869 -1.24 5,973 9.84 9.82
 10:2 62,558 2.26 57,128 2.98 5,430 -4.77 8.68
 10:3 62,332 2.13 56,954 3.17 5,378 -7.71 8.63
 10:4 62,069 1.47 56,737 2.05 5,332 -4.30 8.59
 11:1  62,347 2.47 56,829 3.57 5,518 -7.62 8.85
 11:2 62,493 -0.10 57,149 0.04 5,344 -1.58 8.55
 11:3 62,353 0.03 57,121 0.29 5,232 -2.71 8.39
 11:4 62,421 0.57 57,925 2.09 4,495 -15.70 7.20
 12:1 61,673 -1.08 57,162 0.59 4,511 -18.25 7.31
 12:2 61,747 -1.19 57,290 0.25 4,457 -16.60 7.22
 12:3 61,093 -2.02 56,658 -0.81 4,435 -15.24 7.26
 12:4  61,300 -1.79 57,262 -1.14 4,038 -10.17 6.59
 13:1 60,520 -1.87 56,065 -1.92 4,455 -1.25 7.36
 13:2 60,450 -2.10 55,751 -2.69 4,699 5.42 7.77
 13:3 60,144 -1.55 55,442 -2.15 4,702 6.04 7.82
 

Kingsport Urbanized Area Labor Market

 
 Labor Force Employment Unemployment
 Period  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Rate_
 2007 49,906 -0.01 47,811 0.57 2,096 -11.74 4.20
 2008 50,764 1.72 47,921 0.23 2,843 35.66 5.60
 2009 50,723 -0.08 46,004 -4.00 4,719 65.98 9.30
 2010 50,874 0.30 46,424 0.91 4,450 -5.69 8.75
 2011 51,420 1.07 47,350 2.00 4,070 -8.54 7.92
 2012 50,716 -1.37 47,089 -0.55 3,626 -10.90 7.15
 09:1 50,833 1.07 46,488 -2.78 4,345 75.27 8.55
 09:2 51,228 0.81 46,177 -3.91 5,051 82.94 9.86
 09:3 50,750 -0.52 45,889 -4.32 4,861 59.18 9.58
 09:4 50,081 -1.66 45,464 -4.99 4,618 50.02 9.22
 10:1 49,933 -1.77 44,913 -3.39 5,020 15.53 10.05
 10:2 51,339 0.22 46,859 1.48 4,480 -11.30 8.73
 10:3 51,198 0.88 47,004 2.43 4,194 -13.71 8.19
 10:4 51,025 1.88 46,918 3.20 4,106 -11.08 8.05
 11:1 51,134 2.41 46,722 4.03 4,412 -12.11 8.63
 11:2 51,594 0.50 47,451 1.26 4,143 -7.53 8.03
 11:3 51,626 0.84 47,542 1.14 4,084 -2.62 7.91
 11:4 51,327 0.59 47,686 1.64 3,641 -11.33 7.09
 12:1 50,750 -0.75 46,869 0.31 3,881 -12.02 7.65
 12:2 50,847 -1.45 47,169 -0.59 3,678 -11.22 7.23
 12:3 50,633 -1.92 47,012 -1.11 3,622 -11.33 7.15
 12:4 50,633 -1.35 47,308 -0.79 3,325 -8.69 6.57
 13:1 50,237 -1.01 46,512 -0.65 3,725 -4.02 7.42
 13:2 50,439 -0.80 46,581 -1.25 3,858 4.90 7.65
 13:3 50,360 -0.54 46,589 -0.90 3,770 4.11 7.49

THE UNITED STATES

The national economy continued to create new jobs during the third quarter. On a year-to-year basis, national employment grew 1.2% to 144.8 million, marking the twelfth quarter in a row of overall growth, and the eighth quarter of significant growth. In line with rising employment, jobless levels declined for the thirteenth quarter in a row, falling 9.0% to 11.5 million. The summer unemployment rate was 7.4% (compared to 8.1% in 2012 and 9.1% in 2011).

Among the twelve national NAICS industry sectors, employment increased in ten sectors and decreased in two sectors (compared to eleven and one in the second quarter). Job gains were led by professional & business services, leisure & hospitality, retail trade, education & health, construction, and finance. Smaller employment increases occurred in wholesale trade, other services, transportation & utilities, and manufacturing. Job losses were limited to the government and information services sectors.

 
 Labor Force Employment  Unemployment
 Period  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Level  Y-Y%Ch  Rate_
 2007 153,124 1.12 146,047 1.12 7,078 1.10 4.62
 2008 154,287 0.76 145,362 -0.47 8,924 26.09 5.78
 2009  154,142 -0.09 139,878 -3.77 14,265 59.84 9.25
 2010 153,889 -0.16 139,064 -0.58 14,825 3.93 9.63
 2011 153,617 -0.18 139,869 0.58 13,747 -7.27 8.95
 2012 154,975 0.88 142,469 1.86  12,506 -9.03 8.07
 09:1 153,659 0.55 140,125 -3.20 13,534 67.77 8.81
 09:2 154,697 0.28 140,592 -3.81 14,105 74.17 9.12
 09:3 154,923 -0.31 140,069 -4.08 14,854 58.52 9.59
 09:4 153,289 -0.89 138,724 -4.00 14,565 43.34 9.50
 10:1 153,270 -0.25 137,332 -1.99 15,939 17.76 10.40
 10:2 154,181 -0.33 139,560 -0.73 14,621 3.66 9.48
 10:3 154,601 -0.21 139,923 -0.10 14,679 -1.18 9.49
 10:4 153,502 0.14 139,441 0.52 14,061 -3.46 9.16
 11:1 152,731 -0.35 138,218 0.65 14,513 -8.94 9.50
 11:2 153,628 -0.36 139,939 0.27 13,689 -6.37 8.91
  11:3 154,392 -0.14 140,407 0.35 13,985 -4.72 9.06
 11:4 153,715 0.14 140,913 1.06 12,802 -8.95 8.33
 12:1 153,972 0.81 140,680 1.78 13,292 -8.42 8.63
 12:2 155,096 0.96 142,641 1.93 12,455 -9.01 8.03
 12:3 155,618 0.79 143,006 1.85 12,613 -9.82 8.10
 12:4 155,212 0.97 143,549 1.87 11,663 -8.90 7.51
 13:1 154,679 0.46 142,180 1.07 12,499 -5.97 8.08
 13:2 155,854 0.49 144,332 1.19 11,521 -7.50 7.39
 13:3 156,234 0.40 144,758 1.23 11,477 -9.01 7.35
 Note: Data are in thousands.

ANALYSIS

The overall labor market picture remains unchanged in the third quarter with the national economy adding jobs and the regional economy shedding jobs. In 2010 and 2011, the region and the individual cities saw strong job creation while the U.S. economy sputtered along. But since 2012 the situation has been reversed with significant employment gains at the national level, while local employment levels have been dropping.

In the national labor market, the third quarter was the eighth quarter of significant employment growth (where “significant” means that job creation was more than the one percent growth rate of the U.S. population and labor force). However, some 7.1 million discouraged workers still remain out of the labor force due to the Great Recession. If these long-term unemployed are added back into the labor force, the unemployment rate increases to 11.4%, compared to the 7.4% official rate

In the region, employment has been falling for six quarters and unemployment levels have started rising as a result. Between the third quarter of 2012 and the third quarter of 2013, the Tri-Cities labor market lost over 2,500 jobs.

The economic outlook remains uncertain. The national economy is expected to remain on its slow growth path, meaning that millions of workers will remain outside of the labor force and suffer long-term unemployment. The sequester in the federal government continues to reduce government employment – primarily at the state and local levels. And we are approaching the “budget cliff” again in January and the “debt ceiling cliff” again in February. So there is continuing uncertainty due to the threat of another federal government shutdown.

Technical Note. This report was prepared in December 2013, and is based upon the 2012 benchmark of the Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This third quarter report has been delayed one month due to the October shutdown of the federal government. The labor markets for Bristol, Johnson City, and Kingsport are presented in terms of the U.S. Census Bureau concept of the urbanized area (UZA) which includes the core city and the contiguous urban fringe. The urbanized area for each city is based upon demographic patterns from the 2010 Census of Population. The data in this report are not adjusted for seasonality, so comparisons should be made on a year-to-year basis.

Special Note. The labor market estimates in this report are based on BLS benchmark revisions issued in 2013, and new urbanized area definitions from the 2010 census. The figures in this report are not comparable to the figures in reports covering 2012 and earlier years. See the discussion in the labor market report for the first quarter of 2013.

More information. This report was prepared by Dr. F. Steb Hipple, Professor of Economics, and Research Associate, BBER. For more information, please contact Dr. Hipple c/o Department of Economics and Finance, Box 70686, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, Tennessee 37614. Phone/Voicemail: 423-439-5304. Fax: 423-439-8583. E-Mail: hipples@etsu.edu . Website: http://faculty.etsu.edu/hipples.