ETSU Bureau of Business and Economic
Research
THE
METROPOLITAN AREA (CSA)
Both
employment series show continuing growth in the Tri-Cities metro area. Based on the household data from the Current
Population Survey (CPS), regional employment grew 2.3% during the April to June
period. The payroll data from the
Current Employment Survey (CES) puts the metro employment growth at 1.4% on a
year-to-year basis.
In
the Current Population Survey, metro employment levels increased 2.3% to
217,876. Unemployment fell 21.8% to 10,489,
reducing the jobless rate to 4.6% (compared to 5.9% in 2015 and 6.5% in
2014). The overall labor force expanded
by 0.9% to 228,365. The Current
Employment Survey shows payroll employment rising to 201,167, or 1.4% above
2015 levels.
Among
the twelve regional industry sectors, the CES data show employment levels higher
in seven, lower in three, and unchanged in two sectors (compared to higher in
six, lower in two, and unchanged in four during the first quarter). Job growth was led by retail trade, education
& health, leisure & hospitality, and professional & business
services. Smaller job gains were
reported by government, construction, and other services. Job declines occurred in manufacturing,
information services, and wholesale trade.
Employment was unchanged in transport & utilities, and financial services.
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2007 244,704 0.45 234,109 0.92 10,595 -8.87 4.33
2008 247,668 1.21 233,447 -0.28 14,222 34.22 5.74
2009 247,965 0.12 224,752 -3.72 23,213 63.22 9.36
2010 239,478 -3.42 217,213 -3.35 22,265 -4.08 9.30
2011 242,010 1.06 221,426 1.94 20,584 -7.55 8.51
2012 237,563 -1.84 219,319 -0.95 18,244 -11.37 7.68
2013 233,381 -1.76 215,472 -1.75 17,910 -1.83 7.67
2014 228,229 -2.21 213,146 -1.08 15,083 -15.78 6.61
2015 225,614 -1.15 212,301 -0.40 13,312 -11.74 5.90
13:1 235,444 -1.27 216,235 -1.50 19,209 1.43 8.16
13:2 235,362 -1.38 216,972 -1.51 18,391 0.15 7.81
13:3 233,137 -1.60 215,122 -1.47 18,016 -3.05 7.73
13:4 229,582 -2.81 213,559 -2.54 16,023 -6.26 6.98
14:1 229,344 -2.59 213,561 -1.24 15,783 -17.84 6.88
14:2 228,956 -2.72 214,024 -1.36 14,932 -18.81 6.52
14:3 228,561 -1.96 212,510 -1.21 16,051 -10.91 7.02
14:4 226,054 -1.54 212,487 -0.50 13,566 -15.33 6.00
15:1 225,366 -1.73 211,250 -1.08 14,116 -10.56 6.26
15:2 226,390 -1.12 212,969 -0.49 13,421 -10.12 5.93
15:3 225,159 -1.49 211,687 -0.39 13,472 -16.07 5.98
15:4 225,539 -0.23 213,298 0.38 12,241 -9.77 5.43
16:1 227,139 0.79 216,010 2.25 11,130 -21.16 4.90
16:2 228,365 0.87 217,876 2.30 10,489 -21.85 4.59
THE
TRI-CITIES
All
three cities reported higher employment in the second quarter, according to the
CPS estimates. During the spring months,
employment grew 3.2% in Johnson City, 2.9% in Kingsport, and 1.1% in Bristol. On a year-to-year basis, unemployment fell
24.4% in Johnson City, 21.5% in Kingsport, and 19.0% in Bristol. The unemployment rate was 4.5% in Bristol,
4.5% in Johnson City, and 4.7% in Kingsport.
Bristol TN-VA Urbanized Area Labor Market
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2007 32,481 0.22 31,055 0.38 1,426 -3.03 4.39
2008 32,960 1.48 31,205 0.48 1,755 23.10 5.32
2009 32,931 -0.09 29,962 -3.99 2,969 69.19 9.02
2010 32,590 -1.03 29,745 -0.72 2,845 -4.19 8.73
2011 33,078 1.50 30,424 2.28 2,654 -6.70 8.02
2012 32,574 -1.53 30,204 -0.72 2,369 -10.73 7.27
2013 32,125 -1.38 29,834 -1.22 2,291 -3.31 7.13
2014 31,631 -1.54 29,629 -0.69 2,002 -12.61 6.33
2015 31,109 -1.65 29,395 -0.79 1,714 -14.37 5.51
13:1 32,240 -1.37 29,818 -1.20 2,422 -3.47 7.51
13:2 32,353 -1.13 30,026 -1.03 2,327 -2.36 7.19
13:3 32,162 -1.17 29,862 -0.90 2,299 -4.61 7.15
13:4 31,746 -1.84 29,631 -1.77 2,115 -2.74 6.66
14:1 31,843 -1.23 29,744 -0.25 2,099 -13.34 6.59
14:2 31,807 -1.69 29,797 -0.76 2,010 -13.61 6.32
14:3 31,645 -1.61 29,526 -1.13 2,120 -7.81 6.70
14:4 31,228 -1.63 29,449 -0.62 1,779 -15.88 5.70
15:1 31,135 -2.22 29,281 -1.56 1,854 -11.66 5.96
15:2 31,219 -1.85 29,785 -1.05 1,735 -13.71 5.56
15:3 30,991 -2.07 29,267 -0.88 1,724 -18.67 5.56
15:4 31,092 -0.44 29,547 0.33 1,545 -13.18 4.97
16:1 31,282 0.47 29,794 1.75 1,488 -19.76 4.76
16:2 31,222 0.01 29,817 1.13 1,405 -19.01 4.50
Johnson City Urbanized Area Labor Market
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2007 60,977 1.53 58,372 1.96 2,605 -7.22 4.27
2008 61,391 0.68 57,761 -1.05 3,629 39.30 5.91
2009 61,505 0.19 55,868 -3.28 5,637 55.32 9.17
2010 58,250 -5.29 52,830 -5.44 5,419 -3.86 9.30
2011 58,715 0.80 53,683 1.61 5,033 -7.14 8.57
2012 57,600 -1.90 53,244 -0.82 4,356 -13.44 7.56
2013 56,220 -2.40 51,876 -2.57 4,344 -0.27 7.73
2014 54,904 -2.34 51,279 -1.15 3,624 -16.58 6.60
2015 54,611 -0.53 51,350 0.14 3,261 -10.02 5.97
13:1 56,952 -1.65 52,315 -2.10 4,637 3.74 8.14
13:2 56,698 -1.95 52,198 -2.28 4,500 2.09 7.94
13:3 55,892 -2.30 51,489 -2.39 4,403 -1.25 7.88
13:4 55,337 -3.69 51,501 -3.50 3,837 -6.15 6.93
14:1 55,014 -3.40 51,291 -1.96 3,723 -19.71 6.77
14:2 54,877 -3.21 51,298 -1.72 3,579 -20.47 6.52
14:3 54,961 -1.67 51,045 -0.86 3,917 -11.05 7.13
14:4 54,762 -1.04 51,484 -0.03 3,278 -14.57 5.99
15:1 54,520 -0.90 51,126 -0.32 3,394 -8.84 6.23
15:2 54,736 -0.26 51,435 0.27 3,301 -7.76 6.03
15:3 54,506 -0.83 51,174 0.25 3,332 -14.92 6.11
15:4 54,680 -0.15 51,664 0.35 3,016 -7.99 5.52
16:1 54,955 0.80 52,344 2.38 2,611 -23.05 4.75
16:2 55,593 1.57 53,096 3.23 2,497 -24.35 4.49
Kingsport Urbanized Area Labor Market
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2007 50,171 -0.34 48,115 0.34 2,056 -14.07 4.10
2008 50,734 1.12 47,916 -0.41 2,818 37.08 5.55
2009 51,046 0.62 46,333 -3.30 4,713 67.27 9.23
2010 49,718 -2.60 45,094 -2.67 4,624 -1.90 9.30
2011 50,328 1.23 46,045 2.11 4,284 -7.36 8.51
2012 49,243 -2.16 45,449 -1.29 3,794 -11.42 7.71
2013 48,413 -1.69 44,673 -1.71 3,739 -1.46 7.72
2014 47,242 -2.42 44,104 -1.28 3,138 -16.07 6.64
2015 46,623 -1.31 43,826 -0.63 2,797 -10.88 6.00
13:1 48,822 -1.04 44,845 -1.26 3,977 1.48 8.15
13:2 48,908 -1.19 45,038 -1.37 3,870 0.89 7.91
13:3 48,464 -1.61 44,686 -1.52 3,777 -2.75 7.79
13:4 47,456 -2.92 44,125 -2.69 3,332 -5.84 7.02
14:1 47,472 -2.77 44,230 -1.37 3,241 -18.50 6.83
14:2 47,495 -2.89 44,382 -1.45 3,112 -19.58 6.55
14:3 47,353 -2.29 43,994 -1.55 3,359 -11.08 7.09
14:4 46,648 -1.70 43,807 -0.72 2,841 -14.74 6.09
15:1 46,490 -2.07 43,576 -1.48 2,915 -10.08 6.27
15:2 46,842 -1.37 44,015 -0.83 2,827 -9.16 6.04
15:3 46,563 -1.67 43,710 -0.65 2,852 -15.08 6.13
15:4 46,595 -0.11 44,002 0.45 2,593 -8.71 5.57
16:1 47,116 1.35 44,846 2.91 2,270 -22.11 4.82
16:2 47,506 1.42 45,286 2.89 2,220 -21.47 4.67
THE
UNITED STATES
National
labor market conditions improved again in the second quarter, according to both
the household and payroll surveys. Based
on the CPS household data, national employment rose 1.6% to 151.6 million,
while unemployment fell 8.8% to 7.6 million, and the jobless rate declined to
4.8% (compared to 5.3% in 2015 and 6.1% in 2014). Employment levels have been rising for the
past twenty-three quarters, and during eighteen of the last nineteen quarters,
the rate of job growth has been above the critical one percent threshold which
is necessary to accommodate population expansion.
Turning to the CES data, national payroll employment increased by
1.8% to 144.6 million in the April to June period. Among the twelve national industry sectors, employment
levels were higher in eleven and lower in one (compared to higher in all twelve
sectors during the first quarter). The
largest employment gains were in education & health, professional &
business services, leisure & hospitality, retail trade, and financial
services. Smaller employment growth
occurred in government, mining & construction, other services,
transportation & utilities, wholesale trade, and information services. Manufacturing suffered a small job loss in the
second quarter.
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_ 2007 153,124 1.12 146,047 1.12 7,078 1.10 4.62 2008 154,287 0.76 145,362 -0.47 8,924 26.09 5.78 2009 154,142 -0.09 139,878 -3.77 14,265 59.84 9.25 2010 153,889 -0.16 139,064 -0.58 14,825 3.93 9.63 2011 153,752 -0.09 139,648 0.42 14,104 -4.86 9.17 2012 154,975 0.80 142,469 2.02 12,506 -11.33 8.07 2013 155,389 0.27 143,929 1.02 11,460 -8.36 7.37 2014 155,922 0.34 146,305 1.65 9,616 -16.09 6.17 2015 157,130 0.77 148,833 1.73 8,296 -13.73 5.28 13:1 154,679 0.46 142,180 1.07 12,499 -5.97 8.08 13:2 155,854 0.49 144,332 1.19 11,521 -7.50 7.39 13:3 156,234 0.40 144,758 1.23 11,477 -9.01 7.35 13:4 154,790 -0.27 144,447 0.63 10,343 -11.32 6.68 14:1 155,012 0.22 144,250 1.46 10,762 -13.90 6.94 14:2 155,895 0.03 146,423 1.45 9,472 -17.79 6.08 14:3 156,636 0.26 146,951 1.52 9,685 -15.61 6.18 14:4 156,144 0.87 147,597 2.18 8,547 -17.36 5.47 15:1 156,193 0.76 147,102 1.98 9,092 -15.52 5.82 15:2 157,518 1.04 149,194 1.89 8,325 -12.11 5.28 15:3 157,508 0.56 149,310 1.61 8,198 -15.35 5.21 15:4 157,299 0.74 149,728 1.44 7,571 -11.42 4.81 16:1 158,160 1.26 149,945 1.93 8,215 -9.65 5.19 16:2 159,141 1.03 151,553 1.58 7,588 -8.85 4.77 Note: Data are in thousands.
ANALYSIS
The
labor market patterns of the winter months have continued into the second
quarter. All of the markets covered in
this report show higher employment, lower unemployment, and reduced jobless
rates. This positive picture is
supported by both the household CPS data and the payroll CES data.
At
the national level, employment has increased for the past five years, and the
rate of job creation has remained steady. CPS employment has been growing for the past
twenty-three quarters, and the CES payroll data tell a similar story. However, the growth in jobs has not kept up
with the growth in population. The
annual one percent growth rate in population has added millions of potential
workers to the national labor pool since 2007.
If
we were at true full employment, then the CPS household data would show 159.2
million Americans at work, but instead there were 151.6 million jobs in the second
quarter. If the missing 7.6 million
workers are added into the labor force statistics as being unemployed, then the
effective jobless rate is 9.4% rather that the official rate of 4.8%.
At
the regional level, the CPS and CES data show the Tri-Cities metro economy
continuing to do well. But as we have
experienced in recent years, the CPS household data is subject to large
revisions, and the current household data is unreliable. The CES payroll data is the only robust
source of information about current local labor market conditions.
In
the second quarter, payroll employment in the Consolidated Statistical Area was
1.4% above the same period in 2015. In
the Kingsport/Bristol MSA, payroll employment was up
by 1.4%, while the Johnson City MSA saw 1.3%
growth. (The Tri-Cities Consolidated
Statistical Area is composed of the Kingsport/Bristol MSA
and the Johnson City MSA.). Based on this continued employment growth in
the national economy and in the regional economy, the Tri-Cities business
outlook remains good.
Data Sources. This report is based on two monthly data
surveys from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The data used for the labor market tables are
based on the monthly survey of the homes where people live. This survey is officially the Current
Population Survey (CPS), but the term “household survey” is preferred by the
BLS. The CPS provides labor market
information for the nation, states, metro areas, counties, and select
cities. The data used for employment by
industry are based on the monthly survey of the places where people work. This survey is officially the Current
Employment Survey (CES), but the terms “establishment survey” or “payroll
survey” are preferred by the BLS. The
CES provides payroll employment data for the nation, states, and metropolitan
areas. Industry definitions are based on
the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS).
Technical Note on the Labor
Market Tables. This report
was prepared in August 2016, and is based upon the 2015 benchmark of the
Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The labor markets for Bristol, Johnson City,
and Kingsport are presented in terms of the U.S. Census Bureau concept of the
urbanized area (UZA) which includes the core city and
the contiguous urban fringe. The
urbanized area for each city is based upon demographic patterns from the 2010
Census of Population. The data in this
report are not adjusted for seasonality, so comparisons should be made on a
year-to-year basis.
More information. This report
was prepared by Dr. F. Steb Hipple, Professor of Economics (Ret), and Research
Associate (Ret), BBER. Dr. Hipple will continue to prepare the labor
market reports on an interim basis. For
more information, please contact Dr. Hipple c/o Department of Economics and
Finance, Box 70686, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, Tennessee
37614. Phone/Voicemail:
423-439-5304. Fax: 423-439-8583. E-Mail: hipples@etsu.edu
. Website: http://faculty.etsu.edu/hipples.