ETSU Bureau of Business and Economic
Research
THE
METROPOLITAN AREA (CSA)
Labor
market conditions continued to improve in the Tri-Cities metro area over the
fall months. Employment data from both
the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Current Employment Survey (CES)
show job gains. In the household-based
Current Population Survey, metro employment levels increased 2.1% to
217,759. Unemployment fell 2.3% to
11,962, reducing the jobless rate to 5.2% (compared to 5.4% in 2015 and 6.0% in
2014). The overall labor force expanded
by 1.8% to 229,720. The
establishment-based Current Employment Survey shows payroll employment rising
to 204,167, or 0.3% above 2015 levels.
Among
the twelve regional industry sectors, the CES data show employment levels
higher in six, lower in four, and unchanged in two sectors (compared to higher
in seven, lower in three, and unchanged in two during the third quarter). Job growth was led by professional &
business services, retail trade, and education & health. Smaller job gains were reported by leisure
& hospitality, government, and other services. Job declines occurred in manufacturing,
information services, transport & utilities, and wholesale trade. Employment was unchanged in construction, and
financial services.
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2007 244,704 0.45 234,109 0.92 10,595 -8.87 4.33
2008 247,668 1.21 233,447 -0.28 14,222 34.22 5.74
2009 247,965 0.12 224,752 -3.72 23,213 63.22 9.36
2010 239,478 -3.42 217,213 -3.35 22,265 -4.08 9.30
2011 242,010 1.06 221,426 1.94 20,584 -7.55 8.51
2012 237,563 -1.84 219,319 -0.95 18,244 -11.37 7.68
2013 233,381 -1.76 215,472 -1.75 17,910 -1.83 7.67
2014 228,229 -2.21 213,146 -1.08 15,083 -15.78 6.61
2015 225,614 -1.15 212,301 -0.40 13,312 -11.74 5.90
2016 228,850 1.43 217,399 2.40 11,451 -13.98 5.00
13:1 235,444 -1.27 216,235 -1.50 19,209 1.43 8.16
13:2 235,362 -1.38 216,972 -1.51 18,391 0.15 7.81
13:3 233,137 -1.60 215,122 -1.47 18,016 -3.05 7.73
13:4 229,582 -2.81 213,559 -2.54 16,023 -6.26 6.98
14:1 229,344 -2.59 213,561 -1.24 15,783 -17.84 6.88
14:2 228,956 -2.72 214,024 -1.36 14,932 -18.81 6.52
14:3 228,561 -1.96 212,510 -1.21 16,051 -10.91 7.02
14:4 226,054 -1.54 212,487 -0.50 13,566 -15.33 6.00
15:1 225,366 -1.73 211,250 -1.08 14,116 -10.56 6.26
15:2 226,390 -1.12 212,969 -0.49 13,421 -10.12 5.93
15:3 225,159 -1.49 211,687 -0.39 13,472 -16.07 5.98
15:4 225,539 -0.23 213,298 0.38 12,241 -9.77 5.43
16:1 227,139 0.79 216,010 2.25 11,130 -21.16 4.90
16:2 228,473 0.92 218,020 2.37 10,453 -22.11 4.58
16:3 230,067 2.18 217,807 2.89 12,260 -8.99 5.33
16:4 229,720 1.85 217,759 2.09 11,962 -2.28 5.21
THE
TRI-CITIES
All
three cities reported higher employment levels in the fourth quarter, according
to the household CPS data. During the
autumn months, employment grew 3.4% in Johnson City, 2.1% in Kingsport, and
0.7% in Bristol. On a year-to-year
basis, unemployment fell 3.7% in Johnson City and 2.6% in Kingsport. Surprisingly, Bristol had a jobless increase
of 3.8%. The unemployment rate was 5.1%
in Bristol, 5.2% in Johnson City, and 5.3% in Kingsport (compared to the
regional jobless rate of 5.2%).
Bristol TN-VA Urbanized Area Labor Market
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2007 32,481 0.22 31,055 0.38 1,426 -3.03 4.39
2008 32,960 1.48 31,205 0.48 1,755 23.10 5.32
2009 32,931 -0.09 29,962 -3.99 2,969 69.19 9.02
2010 32,590 -1.03 29,745 -0.72 2,845 -4.19 8.73
2011 33,078 1.50 30,424 2.28 2,654 -6.70 8.02
2012 32,574 -1.53 30,204 -0.72 2,369 -10.73 7.27
2013 32,125 -1.38 29,834 -1.22 2,291 -3.31 7.13
2014 31,631 -1.54 29,629 -0.69 2,002 -12.61 6.33
2015 31,109 -1.65 29,395 -0.79 1,714 -14.37 5.51
2016 31,317 0.67 29,786 1.33 1,531 -10.71 4.89
13:1 32,240 -1.37 29,818 -1.20 2,422 -3.47 7.51
13:2 32,353 -1.13 30,026 -1.03 2,327 -2.36 7.19
13:3 32,162 -1.17 29,862 -0.90 2,299 -4.61 7.15
13:4 31,746 -1.84 29,631 -1.77 2,115 -2.74 6.66
14:1 31,843 -1.23 29,744 -0.25 2,099 -13.34 6.59
14:2 31,807 -1.69 29,797 -0.76 2,010 -13.61 6.32
14:3 31,645 -1.61 29,526 -1.13 2,120 -7.81 6.70
14:4 31,228 -1.63 29,449 -0.62 1,779 -15.88 5.70
15:1 31,135 -2.22 29,281 -1.56 1,854 -11.66 5.96
15:2 31,219 -1.85 29,785 -1.05 1,735 -13.71 5.56
15:3 30,991 -2.07 29,267 -0.88 1,724 -18.67 5.56
15:4 31,092 -0.44 29,547 0.33 1,545 -13.18 4.97
16:1 31,282 0.47 29,794 1.75 1,488 -19.76 4.76
16:2 31,232 0.04 29,838 1.20 1,394 -19.62 4.46
16:3 31,403 1.33 29,764 1.70 1,638 -4.98 5.22
16:4 31,351 0.84 29,748 0.68 1,603 3.76 5.11
Johnson City Urbanized Area Labor Market
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2007 60,977 1.53 58,372 1.96 2,605 -7.22 4.27
2008 61,391 0.68 57,761 -1.05 3,629 39.30 5.91
2009 61,505 0.19 55,868 -3.28 5,637 55.32 9.17
2010 58,250 -5.29 52,830 -5.44 5,419 -3.86 9.30
2011 58,715 0.80 53,683 1.61 5,033 -7.14 8.57
2012 57,600 -1.90 53,244 -0.82 4,356 -13.44 7.56
2013 56,220 -2.40 51,876 -2.57 4,344 -0.27 7.73
2014 54,904 -2.34 51,279 -1.15 3,624 -16.58 6.60
2015 54,611 -0.53 51,350 0.14 3,261 -10.02 5.97
2016 55,748 2.08 53,006 3.23 2,742 -15.91 4.92
13:1 56,952 -1.65 52,315 -2.10 4,637 3.74 8.14
13:2 56,698 -1.95 52,198 -2.28 4,500 2.09 7.94
13:3 55,892 -2.30 51,489 -2.39 4,403 -1.25 7.88
13:4 55,337 -3.69 51,501 -3.50 3,837 -6.15 6.93
14:1 55,014 -3.40 51,291 -1.96 3,723 -19.71 6.77
14:2 54,877 -3.21 51,298 -1.72 3,579 -20.47 6.52
14:3 54,961 -1.67 51,045 -0.86 3,917 -11.05 7.13
14:4 54,762 -1.04 51,484 -0.03 3,278 -14.57 5.99
15:1 54,520 -0.90 51,126 -0.32 3,394 -8.84 6.23
15:2 54,736 -0.26 51,435 0.27 3,301 -7.76 6.03
15:3 54,506 -0.83 51,174 0.25 3,332 -14.92 6.11
15:4 54,680 -0.15 51,664 0.35 3,016 -7.99 5.52
16:1 54,955 0.80 52,344 2.38 2,611 -23.05 4.75
16:2 55,624 1.62 53,128 3.29 2,496 -24.40 4.49
16:3 56,065 2.86 53,108 3.78 2,957 -11.27 5.27
16:4 56,350 3.05 53,445 3.45 2,904 -3.71 5.15
Kingsport Urbanized Area Labor Market
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_
2007 50,171 -0.34 48,115 0.34 2,056 -14.07 4.10
2008 50,734 1.12 47,916 -0.41 2,818 37.08 5.55
2009 51,046 0.62 46,333 -3.30 4,713 67.27 9.23
2010 49,718 -2.60 45,094 -2.67 4,624 -1.90 9.30
2011 50,328 1.23 46,045 2.11 4,284 -7.36 8.51
2012 49,243 -2.16 45,449 -1.29 3,794 -11.42 7.71
2013 48,413 -1.69 44,673 -1.71 3,739 -1.46 7.72
2014 47,242 -2.42 44,104 -1.28 3,138 -16.07 6.64
2015 46,623 -1.31 43,826 -0.63 2,797 -10.88 6.00
2016 47,480 1.84 45,075 2.85 2,405 -14.01 5.07
13:1 48,822 -1.04 44,845 -1.26 3,977 1.48 8.15
13:2 48,908 -1.19 45,038 -1.37 3,870 0.89 7.91
13:3 48,464 -1.61 44,686 -1.52 3,777 -2.75 7.79
13:4 47,456 -2.92 44,125 -2.69 3,332 -5.84 7.02
14:1 47,472 -2.77 44,230 -1.37 3,241 -18.50 6.83
14:2 47,495 -2.89 44,382 -1.45 3,112 -19.58 6.55
14:3 47,353 -2.29 43,994 -1.55 3,359 -11.08 7.09
14:4 46,648 -1.70 43,807 -0.72 2,841 -14.74 6.09
15:1 46,490 -2.07 43,576 -1.48 2,915 -10.08 6.27
15:2 46,842 -1.37 44,015 -0.83 2,827 -9.16 6.04
15:3 46,563 -1.67 43,710 -0.65 2,852 -15.08 6.13
15:4 46,595 -0.11 44,002 0.45 2,593 -8.71 5.57
16:1 47,116 1.35 44,846 2.91 2,270 -22.11 4.82
16:2 47,531 1.47 45,318 2.96 2,213 -21.74 4.66
16:3 47,823 2.71 45,212 3.44 2,611 -8.46 5.46
16:4 47,452 1.84 44,926 2.10 2,526 -2.60 5.32
THE
UNITED STATES
National
labor market conditions continued to improve in the fourth quarter, according
to both the household and payroll surveys.
Based on the CPS household data, national employment rose 1.6% to 152.2
million, while unemployment fell 4.5% to 7.2 million, and the jobless rate
declined to 4.5% (compared to 4.8% in 2015 and 5.5% in 2014). Employment levels have been rising for the
past twenty-five quarters, and during twenty of the last twenty-one quarters,
the rate of job growth has remained above the critical one percent threshold,
which is necessary to accommodate U.S. population expansion.
Turning to the CES data, national payroll employment increased by
1.3% to 145.8 million in the October to December period. Among the twelve national industry sectors,
employment levels were higher in eleven and lower in one (compared to higher in
eleven and lower in one during the third quarter). The largest employment gains were in
professional & business services, education & health, leisure &
hospitality, government, retail trade, and financial services. Smaller job growth occurred in other
services, mining & construction, transportation & utilities, wholesale
trade, and information services.
Manufacturing suffered a small job loss in the fourth quarter.
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Period Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Level Y-Y%Ch Rate_ 2007 153,124 1.12 146,047 1.12 7,078 1.10 4.62 2008 154,287 0.76 145,362 -0.47 8,924 26.09 5.78 2009 154,142 -0.09 139,878 -3.77 14,265 59.84 9.25 2010 153,889 -0.16 139,064 -0.58 14,825 3.93 9.63 2011 153,752 -0.09 139,648 0.42 14,104 -4.86 9.17 2012 154,975 0.80 142,469 2.02 12,506 -11.33 8.07 2013 155,389 0.27 143,929 1.02 11,460 -8.36 7.37 2014 155,922 0.34 146,305 1.65 9,616 -16.09 6.17 2015 157,130 0.77 148,833 1.73 8,296 -13.73 5.28 2016 159,187 1.31 151,436 1.75 7,751 -6.57 4.87 13:1 154,679 0.46 142,180 1.07 12,499 -5.97 8.08 13:2 155,854 0.49 144,332 1.19 11,521 -7.50 7.39 13:3 156,234 0.40 144,758 1.23 11,477 -9.01 7.35 13:4 154,790 -0.27 144,447 0.63 10,343 -11.32 6.68 14:1 155,012 0.22 144,250 1.46 10,762 -13.90 6.94 14:2 155,895 0.03 146,423 1.45 9,472 -17.79 6.08 14:3 156,636 0.26 146,951 1.52 9,685 -15.61 6.18 14:4 156,144 0.87 147,597 2.18 8,547 -17.36 5.47 15:1 156,193 0.76 147,102 1.98 9,092 -15.52 5.82 15:2 157,518 1.04 149,194 1.89 8,325 -12.11 5.28 15:3 157,508 0.56 149,310 1.61 8,198 -15.35 5.21 15:4 157,299 0.74 149,728 1.44 7,571 -11.42 4.81 16:1 158,160 1.26 149,945 1.93 8,215 -9.65 5.19 16:2 159,141 1.03 151,553 1.58 7,588 -8.85 4.77 16:3 160,046 1.61 152,073 1.85 7,974 -2.74 4.98 16:4 159,400 1.34 152,173 1.63 7,228 -4.53 4.53 Note: Data are in thousands.
ANALYSIS
In
general, the labor market patterns we have seen in recent years continued into
the fourth quarter. Most of the markets
covered in this report show higher employment, lower unemployment, and reduced
jobless rates. But there are some
notable changes, especially in the Tri-Cities region.
At
the national level, employment has increased for the past six years, and the
rate of job creation has remained steady.
CPS employment has been growing for the past twenty-five quarters, and
the CES payroll data tell a similar story.
However, the growth in jobs has not kept up with population growth. The annual one percent increase in the U.S.
population adds millions of potential workers to the national labor pool each
year.
If
we were at true full employment, then the CPS household data would show 160.4
million Americans at work, but instead there were 152.2 million jobs in the
fourth quarter. If the missing 8.2
million workers are added into the labor force statistics as being unemployed,
then the effective jobless rate is 9.4% rather that the official rate of 4.5%.
At
the regional level, the CES data show a troubling slowdown in job
creation. In the fourth quarter, payroll
employment in the Consolidated Statistical Area was only 0.3% above the same
period in 2015. In the Kingsport/Bristol
MSA, payroll employment was down by 0.3%, while the
Johnson City MSA saw 1.2% growth. (The Tri-Cities Consolidated Statistical Area
is composed of the Kingsport/Bristol MSA and the
Johnson City MSA.).
The
national economy is expected to continue its slow but steady pace of job
creation. Over time, the missing eight
million workers will be absorbed into the working labor force. The metro area is showing signs of slower and
mixed growth based on the CES and CPS data.
There may be some bumps in the road for local businesses in 2017.
Data Sources. This report is based on two monthly data
surveys from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The data used for the labor market tables are
based on the monthly survey of the homes where people live. This survey is officially the Current
Population Survey (CPS), but the term “household survey” is preferred by the
BLS. The CPS provides labor market
information for the nation, states, metro areas, counties, and select
cities. The data used for employment by
industry are based on the monthly survey of the places where people work. This survey is officially the Current
Employment Survey (CES), but the terms “establishment survey” or “payroll
survey” are preferred by the BLS. The
CES provides payroll employment data for the nation, states, and metropolitan
areas. Industry definitions are based on
the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS).
Technical Note on the Labor
Market Tables. This report
was prepared in February 2017, and is based upon the 2015 benchmark of the
Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The labor markets for Bristol, Johnson City,
and Kingsport are presented in terms of the U.S. Census Bureau concept of the
urbanized area (UZA) which includes the core city and
the contiguous urban fringe. The
urbanized area for each city is based upon demographic patterns from the 2010
Census of Population. The data in this
report are not adjusted for seasonality, so comparisons should be made on a
year-to-year basis.
More information. This report
was prepared by Dr. F. Steb Hipple, Professor of Economics (Ret), and Research
Associate (Ret), BBER. Dr. Hipple will continue to prepare the labor
market reports on an interim basis. For
more information, please contact Dr. Hipple c/o Department of Economics and
Finance, Box 70686, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, Tennessee
37614. Phone/Voicemail:
423-439-5304. Fax: 423-439-8583. E-Mail: hipples@etsu.edu
. Website: http://faculty.etsu.edu/hipples.