Now SNe occur randomly throughout the galaxy about once every 30 years.
If we had an unlimited view of the galaxy, then we should see a SN every
30 years, of course. But our view is limited. What are the odds that a
SN will go off within 5 kpc from the Sun. The odds are the ratio of
areas for 5 kpc versus 30 kpc, or
, which
is 2.8%. So for every 100 SNe, we should see about 3. It will take
about 3000 years for 100 SNe to explode. Since we would only see 3 in
that time, we can expect to see a SN about every 1000 years. Or put
another way, the frequency with which we see SNe inside our 5 kpc viewing
zone is
years.