The problem wants to know, in effect, what is the minimum number of civilizations required in the galaxy so that we could communicate with them within the average lifetime of a civiliation with our nearest neighbor. So, if we send out a signal, what is the lifetime and number of civilizations required so that we get a response before we die.
First, we adopt the idea that the number of civilizations equals
the average life time
, or
. Here
equals just one
year and is there to make the units come out (since
is just a
number without units, so we require
in years).
So the average surface density of these civilized worlds will be
, where
is the area of the galactic disk.
If we take the disk as circular with a radius
, then the average
density is
.
So how close is the nearest civilization? Let's approach it this way.
On average, how much galactic space (i.e., area) is on average associated
with a given civilized world. That means that the density times the
area gives just one civilization, or
. This area
is circular with radius
, so that
,
or
This means the distance to the nearest civilized planet is . The light
travel time for communication is
(because we send a signal, and
then they send reply). We can rewrite this as
Now is the communication time, but we want
that equal to the civilization lifetime. We know that
is related
to
,
is related to
, and
is related to
. Let's take the
equation line above, substitute for
to get
, and
to get
,
and we have that
Use algebra to solve for , giving
Plug in the numbers and take the cube root (remember to convert
from 1 year to seconds), and one gets
years, or
over 3 millenia.