Valuation of Ronen

            In this study, you are going to analyze and value a company using ratios across time, comparing them to industry averages, calculate a growth rate, determine the cost of capital, and use a constant growth model to value Ronen’s stock as of Dec. 2000.  Because of the expertise you will gain from this exercise, Ronen will hire you to head up their financial division where you will make decisions that hopefully will lead to an even higher stock price.  After you have completed your valuation, click on the link at the bottom of this exercise to begin your new career.

 

Below are Ronen’s Income statements, Balance Sheets, and Statement of Cash Flows for 1996 -2000.  Industry averages for key ratios are also given.

 

Ronen

ANNUAL INCOME STATEMENT

 

 

   ($ MILLIONS, EXCEPT PER SHARE)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec-00

Dec-99

Dec-98

Dec-97

Dec-96

Sales

100,789.00

40,112.00

31,260.00

20,273.00

13,289.00

  Cost of Goods Sold

97,981.00

37,999.00

28,994.00

18,883.00

12,125.00

 

-------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

Gross Profit

2,808.00

2,113.00

2,266.00

1,390.00

1,164.00

  Selling, General, &

 

 

 

 

 

     Administrative Expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

-------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

Operating Income Before Deprec.

2,808.00

2,113.00

2,266.00

1,390.00

1,164.00

  Depreciation, Depletion, &

 

 

 

 

 

     Amortization

855

870

827

600

474

 

-------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

Operating Profit

1,953.00

1,243.00

1,439.00

790

690

   Interest Expense

876

710

616

419

286

   Non-Operating Income/Expense

446

793

248

507

382

   Special Items

121

13

-39

-714

178

 

-------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

Pretax Income

1,644.00

1,339.00

1,032.00

164

964

  Total Income Taxes

434

104

175

-90

271

  Minority Interest

231

211

154

149

109

 

-------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

Income Before Extraordinary

 

 

 

 

 

   Items & Discontinued Operations

979

1,024.00

703

105

584

Preferred Dividends

83

66

17

17

16

 

-------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

Available for Common

896

958

686

88

568

  Savings Due to Common

 

 

 

 

 

     Stock Equivalents

0

0

0

0

0

 

-------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

Adjusted Available for Common

896

958

686

88

568

  Extraordinary Items

0

-131

0

0

0

  Discontinued Operations

0

0

0

0

0

 

-------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

Adjusted Net Income

896

827

686

88

568

Earnings Per Share Basic -

 

 

 

 

 

 Excluding Extra Items & Disc Op

1.22

1.36

1.07

0.16

1.15

Earnings Per Share Basic -

 

 

 

 

 

 Including Extra Items & Disc Op

1.22

1.17

1.07

0.16

1.15

Earnings Per Share Diluted-

 

 

 

 

 

 Excluding Extra Items & Disc Op

1.12

1.27

1.01

0.16

1.08

Earnings Per Share Diluted -

 

 

 

 

 

 Including Extra Items & Disc Op

1.12

1.1

1.01

0.16

1.08

EPS Basic from Operations

1.16

1.26

1.06

0.96

0.92

EPS Diluted from Operations

1.07

1.18

1

@NA

@NA

Dividends Per Share

0.5

0.5

0.48

0.46

0.43

Com Shares for Basic EPS

736

705

642

544

492

Com Shares for Diluted EPS

814

769

696

554

542

 

 

Ronen

Balance Sheet

 

 

 

 

Dec-00

Dec-99

Dec-98

Dec-97

Dec-96

ASSETS

 

 

 

 

 

  Cash & Equivalents

1,374.00

288

111

170

256

  Net Receivables

12,270.00

3,548.00

2,893.00

2,151.00

2,255.00

  Inventories

953

598

514

0

164

  Prepaid Expenses

0

0

0

0

0

  Other Current Assets

15,784.00

2,821.00

2,415.00

2,348.00

1,304.00

 

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

 Total Current Assets

30,381.00

7,255.00

5,933.00

4,669.00

3,979.00

   Gross Plant, Property & Equipment

15,459.00

13,912.00

15,792.00

13,742.00

11,348.00

   Accumulated Depreciation

3,716.00

3,231.00

5,135.00

4,572.00

4,236.00

 

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

  Net Plant, Property & Equipment

11,743.00

10,681.00

10,657.00

9,170.00

7,112.00

  Investments at Equity

5,294.00

5,036.00

4,433.00

2,656.00

1,701.00

  Other Investments

0

0

0

0

0

  Intangibles

3,638.00

2,799.00

1,949.00

1,910.00

0

  Deferred Charges

0

0

0

0

0

  Other Assets

14,447.00

7,610.00

6,378.00

5,017.00

3,345.00

 

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

TOTAL ASSETS

65,503.00

33,381.00

29,350.00

23,422.00

16,137.00

LIABILITIES

 

 

 

 

 

  Long Term Debt Due In One Year

0

0

0

0

0

  Notes Payable

1,679.00

1,001.00

0

0

0

  Accounts Payable

9,777.00

2,154.00

2,380.00

2,119.00

2,035.00

  Taxes Payable

0

0

0

0

70

  Accrued Expenses

0

0

0

0

56

  Other Current Liabilities

16,950.00

3,604.00

3,727.00

2,293.00

1,547.00

 

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

 Total Current Liabilities

28,406.00

6,759.00

6,107.00

4,412.00

3,708.00

  Long Term Debt

8,550.00

7,151.00

7,357.00

6,254.00

3,349.00

  Deferred Taxes

1,644.00

1,894.00

2,357.00

2,039.00

2,290.00

  Investment Tax Credit

0

0

0

0

0

  Minority Interest

3,318.00

3,430.00

3,144.00

2,140.00

1,347.00

  Other Liabilities

12,115.00

4,577.00

3,337.00

2,959.00

1,720.00

EQUITY

 

 

 

 

 

  Preferred Stock - Redeemable

0

0

0

0

0

  Preferred Stock - Nonredeemable

1,124.00

1,130.00

132

134

137

 

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

 Total Preferred Stock

1,124.00

1,130.00

132

134

137

  Common Stock

8,348.00

6,637.00

5,117.00

4,224.00

26

  Capital Surplus

0

0

0

0

1,710.00

  Retained Earnings

2,030.00

1,852.00

1,994.00

1,529.00

1,880.00

  Less: Treasury Stock

32

49

195

269

30

 

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

 Common Equity

10,346.00

8,440.00

6,916.00

5,484.00

3,586.00

 

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

TOTAL EQUITY

11,470.00

9,570.00

7,048.00

5,618.00

3,723.00

 

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

------------------

TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY

65,503.00

33,381.00

29,350.00

23,422.00

16,137.00

COMMON SHARES OUTSTANDING

751.628

714.527

661.762

622.492

510.248

 

Ronen

ANNUAL STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS

 

($ MILLIONS)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec-00

Dec-99

Dec-98

Dec-97

Dec-96

INDIRECT OPERATING ACTIVITIES

 

 

 

 

 

Income Before Extraordinary Items

979

1,024.00

703

105

584

Depreciation and Amortization

855

870

827

600

474

Extraordinary Items and Disc. Operations

0

0

0

0

0

Deferred Taxes

207

21

87

-174

207

Equity in Net Loss (Earnings)

 

 

 

 

 

Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment

 

 

 

 

 

and Sale of Investments - Loss (Gain)

-146

-541

-710

-195

-274

Funds from Operations - Other

676

854

966

230

-108

Receivables - Decrease (Increase)

-8,203.00

-662

-1,055.00

26

-678

Inventory - Decrease (Increase)

1,336.00

-133

-372

0

-53

Accounts Payable and Accrued Liabs - Inc (Dec)

7,167.00

-246

433

-41

874

Income Taxes - Accrued - Increase (Decrease)

0

0

0

0

-51

Other Assets and Liabilities - Net Change

1,908.00

41

761

-50

65

Operating Activities - Net Cash Flow

4,779.00

1,228.00

1,640.00

501

1,040.00

INVESTING ACTIVITIES

 

 

 

 

 

Investments - Increase

933

722

1,839.00

944

761

Sale of Investments

 

 

 

 

 

Short-Term Investments - Change

0

0

0

0

0

Capital Expenditures

2,381.00

2,363.00

1,905.00

1,413.00

855

Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisitions

777

311

104

82

0

Investing Activities - Other

-173

-111

-117

3

386

Investing Activities - Net Cash Flow

-4,264.00

-3,507.00

-3,965.00

-2,436.00

-1,230.00

FINANCING ACTIVITIES

 

 

 

 

 

Sale of Common and Preferred Stock

634

991

880

@CF

107

Purchase of Common and Preferred Stock

 

 

 

 

 

Cash Dividends

523

467

414

354

281

Long-Term Debt - Issuance

3,994.00

1,776.00

1,903.00

1,817.00

359

Long-Term Debt - Reduction

2,433.00

1,837.00

870

607

294

Current Debt - Changes

-1,595.00

1,565.00

-158

464

217

Financing Activities - Other

494

428

925

951

223

Financing Activities - Net Cash Flow

571

2,456.00

2,266.00

1,849.00

331

Exchange Rate Effect

0

0

0

0

0

Cash and Equivalents - Change

1,086.00

177

-59

-86

141

DIRECT OPERATING ACTIVITIES

 

 

 

 

 

Interest Paid - Net

834

678

585

420

290

Income Taxes Paid

62

51

73

68

89

 

 

Ronen

ANNUAL RATIO REPORT

 

 

 

(RATIO, EXCEPT AS NOTED)

 

 

 

 

 

 

LIQUIDITY

Dec-00

Dec-99

Dec-98

Dec-97

Dec-96

Dec-95

Current Ratio

1.07

1.07

0.97

1.06

1.07

1.12

Quick Ratio

0.48

0.57

0.49

0.53

0.68

0.7

Working Capital Per Share

2.63

0.69

-0.26

0.41

0.53

0.59

Cash Flow Per Share

2.44

2.65

2.31

1.13

2.07

1.89

ACTIVITY

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inventory Turnover

126.35

68.34

112.82

230.28

88.03

65.15

Receivables Turnover

12.74

12.46

12.39

9.2

6.94

7.31

Total Asset Turnover

2.04

1.28

1.18

1.02

0.9

0.73

Average Collection Period (Days)

28

29

29

39

52

49

Days to Sell Inventory

3

5

3

2

4

6

Operating Cycle (Days)

31

34

32

41

56

55

PERFORMANCE

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sales/Net Property, Plant & Equip

8.58

3.76

2.93

2.21

1.87

1.34

Sales/Stockholder Equity

8.79

4.19

4.44

3.61

3.57

2.9

PROFITABILITY

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Margin Before Depr (%)

2.79

5.27

7.25

6.86

8.76

11.42

Operating Margin After Depr (%)

1.94

3.1

4.6

3.9

5.19

6.73

Pretax Profit Margin (%)

1.63

3.34

3.3

0.81

7.25

9.59

Net Profit Margin (%)

0.97

2.55

2.25

0.52

4.39

5.66

Return on Assets (%)

1.37

2.87

2.34

0.38

3.52

3.81

Return on Equity (%)

8.66

11.35

9.92

1.6

15.84

16.66

Return on Investment (%)

3.84

4.75

3.91

0.63

6.75

7.05

Return on Average Assets (%)

1.81

3.05

2.6

0.44

3.87

4

Return on Average Equity (%)

9.54

12.48

11.06

1.94

17.18

17.49

Return on Average Investment (%)

4.12

5.08

4.35

0.78

7.29

7.47

LEVERAGE

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interest Coverage Before Tax

2.88

2.89

2.68

1.39

4.37

3.92

Interest Coverage After Tax

2.12

2.44

2.14

1.25

3.04

2.72

Long-Term Debt/Common Equity (%)

82.64

84.73

106.38

114.04

93.39

101.23

Long-Term Debt/Shrhldr Equity(%)

74.54

74.72

104.38

111.32

89.95

96.83

Total Debt/Invested Capital (%)

43.83

40.45

41.92

44.63

39.78

42.83

Total Debt/Total Assets (%)

15.62

24.42

25.07

26.7

20.75

23.15

Total Assets/Common Equity

6.33

3.96

4.24

4.27

4.5

4.37

DIVIDENDS

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dividend Payout (%)

41.07

37.06

45.48

276.14

37.32

40.58

Dividend Yield (%)

0.6

1.13

1.69

2.2

2

2.13

 

 

1.  Examine the Liquidity, Activity, Performance, Profitability, and Leverage Ratios for Ronen.  For each category, discuss overall whether the ratios are improving or getting worse over time.  Use at least one concrete example to back up your conclusion within each category.  For example, you may say the liquidity of Ronen is basically unchanged based on the current ratio of 1.07 which has been its approximate average over the last 5 years.  (Note this is an example, do not use for your answer!)

 

2.  The following gives a summary of key ratios compared to Ronen’s Industry. 

Ratio Analysis

2000

2000

1999

1999

1998

1998

1997

1997

Ronen

Ronen

Industry

Ronen

Industry

Ronen

Industry

Ronen

Industry

Leverage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Debt to Total Equity

0.89

2.55

0.85

1.88

1.04

1.99

1.11

1.83

Times Interest Earned

2.1

0.1

2.4

1.9

2.1

2

1.3

1.6

Liquidity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Ratio

1.07

0.99

1.07

0.94

0.97

0.96

1.06

0.91

Cash Flow Per Share ($)

2.44

-0.24

2.65

3.36

2.31

3.37

1.13

2.41

Activity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Asset Turnover

9

0.5

3.8

2.1

3.2

1.8

2.5

1.2

Profitability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Return on Avg Total Assets (%)

1.81

-3.01

3.05

2.34

2.6

2.89

0.44

1.95

Return on Avg Total Equity (%)

9.31

-15.4

12.32

12.01

11.1

14.58

2.25

7.74

Profit Margin (%)

0.97

-10.49

2.55

2.35

2.25

3.29

0.52

2.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ronen

2000

2000

1999

1999

1998

1998

1997

1997

Market Information

Ronen

Industry

Ronen

Industry

Ronen

Industry

Ronen

Industry

Price Close *

83.13

18.59

44.38

31.02

28.53

45.49

20.78

27.91

Dividends Per Share (Exdate) *

0.5

0.89

0.5

0.74

0.48

0.57

0.46

0.65

Earnings Per Share *

1.22

0.32

1.36

1.64

1.07

1.84

0.16

0.68

EPS from Basic Operations *

1.16

1.32

1.26

2.4

1.06

1.78

0.96

0.91

Price-Earnings Ratio *

68.14

57.45

32.63

18.96

26.66

24.77

129.88

41.27

Price/EPS from Basic Operations *

71.66

14.13

35.22

12.91

26.92

25.53

21.53

30.71

Price to Book Value *

5.94

1.01

3.76

2

2.75

3.63

2.36

2.93

*    Industry figure represents weighted average industry item

 

 

 

 

 

**   Industry figure represents percentage of total industry known as:

 

 

 

 

 

A.  Evaluate Ronen as a company relative to the industry.  Does it appear Ronen is an attractive company at this time.  Explain.  Back up your argument with at least three specific examples using the leverage, liquidity, activity and profitability ratios only.

 

B.  Evaluate Ronen’s stock relative to the industry.  Does it appear that Ronen is an attractive stock at this time?  Explain.  Back up your argument with at least 3 specific examples using the market information in the above table.

 

3.  In 2000, Ronen’s Beta was .6.  If the risk-free rate was 5% and the expected return on the Market is 11.5%, what is the required return on Ronen’s stock.  Use the CAPM to start.  Recall the CAPM is Ri = rf + Beta(Rmrf).  Note that if you don’t think this required return is appropriate, change it!

 

4.  Calculate the growth rate for Ronen by using ROE * (1 – payout ratio) where the payout ratio is calculated by dividing dividends by earnings or net income.  Also calculate the growth of sales, dividends, or earnings using the geometric growth rate over some time period.  Average your two numbers to attain an estimate of growth.

 

5.  Calculate an input for the growth model.  Dividends per share would be one but likely not very accurate.  I would recommend FCFE per share as well.  Recall the formula is  Net Income +  depreciation – Cap. Expend. – change in working capital – principal debt repayments + new debt issues.  Then divide this number by shares outstanding.  You may want to use average values for some of your inputs.  Remember you are trying to come up with what will be available for the next ten years or so.

 

Average

Dec-00

Dec-99

Dec-98

Dec-97

Dec-96

Adjusted Net Income

$613

$896

$827

$686

$88

$568

Depreciation

$725

$855

$870

$827

$600

$474

Capital Expenditures

$1,783

$2,381

$2,363

$1,905

$1,413

$855

Change in WC

$189

$295

$1,530

-$1,367

$298

 

Long-Term Debt - Issuance

$1,970

$3,994

$1,776

$1,903

$1,817

$359

Long-Term Debt - Reduction

$1,208

$2,433

$1,837

$870

$607

$294

FCFE

$127

$636

-$2,257

$2,008

$187

$252

No. of shares

751.628

751.628

714.527

661.762

622.492

510.248

FCFE Per share

$0.17

$0.85

-$3.16

$3.03

$0.30

 

Dividends Per Share

 

0.5

0.5

0.48

0.46

0.43

 

 

6.  Using the three stage growth model, calculate the intrinsic value of Ronen’s stock assuming current growth continues for 10 more years, at which time it will slow to 5% over the next 10 years.  Its value in Jan. 2000 was $80 per share.  Is Ronen undervalued or overvalued based on the three-stage growth model? 

 

Click here to use this model.  http://faculty.etsu.edu/trainor/FNCE 3300/fcfe3st.xls

 

7.  Now, using all of the information you have looked at in questions 1-6, make a recommendation on whether to buy, sell, or hold this stock. 

 

8.  Now click on the link below for an interactive flash exercise in which you will be heading up Ronen's financial division.  The company recently split its stock 10 for 1 so you will be starting with a stock price of $7.

Flash Exercise